Review of Gold Market Performance and Key Insights:

Last week, London spot gold closed at $4,614 per ounce (down 2.0% week-on-week), while domestic AU9999 gold closed at 1,014 yuan per gram (down 1.8% week-on-week).

In the early hours of April 30 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced its April monetary policy decision, keeping the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, in line with market expectations. However, the meeting's vote resulted in 8 in favor and 4 against, marking the most divided FOMC meeting since 1992. Among the dissenters, Governor Milan advocated for a 25 basis point rate cut, while three regional Fed presidents opposed retaining the "accommodative bias" wording in the statement, indicating a strengthening hawkish faction.

Compared to the interest rate decision itself, Powell's statements during the press conference were even more unexpected for the market. He announced that he would continue to serve as a Federal Reserve Governor until 2028 after his term as Chairman concludes on May 15. Although Powell pledged not to interfere with his successor, Warsh, as a "shadow chairman," his continued presence objectively enhances policy continuity on the Board and creates a counterbalance against extreme policy shifts.

Simultaneously, Warsh's nomination for Chairman has been approved by the Senate Banking Committee and he is highly likely to officially take office before May 15. His policy framework can be summarized as "rate cuts prioritized, balance sheet reduction approached cautiously, and communication more restrained." However, the core contradiction in Warsh's framework lies in the tension between needing accommodative political support for rate cuts, while balance sheet reduction and institutional reforms require internal consensus and market trust—a dynamic that will persist throughout his tenure.

Currently, market pessimism regarding rate cuts appears to be largely priced in, with gold prices positioned at relatively low levels following a significant correction. If oil prices see marginal easing as US-Iran negotiations progress, or if US economic data shows further weakness, any marginal improvement in rate cut expectations could serve as a key catalyst for gold prices.

Looking ahead, the structural factors supporting gold's medium to long-term trajectory remain intact: amid global "de-dollarization" trends, central bank gold buying demand from emerging markets like China and Poland continues, with net global central bank purchases reaching 244 tonnes in the first quarter; high US fiscal deficits, where debt interest payments exceed military spending, pose long-term erosion to the US dollar's credibility; and gold's role as a strategic asset for hedging against "fragmentation risks in the international order" and "sovereign currency risks" remains solid within diversified investment portfolios.

Key signals for gold investors to monitor in the coming week include: (1) ADP employment and non-farm payrolls data; and (2) developments in the Middle East situation.

Related Products:

Gold ETF HuaAn (518880) / Link A (000216) / Link C (000217) Gold Stock ETF HuaAn (159321)

Comparison of RMB-denominated Gold and International Gold Price Trends:

Data source: Wind, HuaAn Fund, as of 2026/4/30

Risk Disclosure: Investors are advised to pay attention to the specific risks associated with investing in gold-themed funds, such as gold market volatility risk, deviation between the fund's portfolio return and the domestic gold spot price return, and investment risks in the Shanghai Gold Exchange's spot gold market, among other major risks. The Gold Stock ETF is an equity fund primarily investing in constituent stocks and alternative constituent stocks of the underlying index, exhibiting risk-return characteristics similar to the index. The Gold Stock ETF may invest in stocks eligible for the Stock Connect program, exposing it to exchange rate risks and specific risks arising from differences in investment environment, targets, market systems, and trading rules under the Connect mechanism. The fund management company does not guarantee that the aforementioned funds will be profitable or provide a minimum return, and past performance is not indicative of future results. The operation history of funds in China is relatively short and may not reflect all stages of stock market development. The market involves risks; investing requires caution, and investors assume their own risks. Before investing, investors should carefully read the "Fund Contract" and "Prospectus" to fully understand the risk-return characteristics of the fund product. Based on their own risk tolerance, investment horizon, and objectives, and after understanding the product and considering the suitability opinions of the sales institution, investors should make independent investment decisions and choose appropriate fund products.

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