Market drivers: With the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting approaching on March 18th, market expectations for rate cuts remain contested. The upward momentum of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has slowed, gradually reducing the downward pressure on gold prices. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have not fully subsided, maintaining safe-haven demand. Combined with ongoing gold purchases by global central banks providing a floor, gold's downside is strongly supported. Any sharp short-term declines are viewed as technical corrections rather than a trend reversal.
Gold price analysis: Gold closed with another doji candlestick yesterday. Today's intraday strategy should continue to follow a range-trading approach. The interest rate decision early tomorrow is likely to set a clear direction; the personal inclination is towards a scenario where prices test lower levels before rebounding. Current support is near the intraday low of 4993; consider long positions near this level. If a shakeout occurs similar to yesterday's, approaching yesterday's low is still recommended for long entries. The strong support level remains at 4910, which is also a level for long positions, though an opportunity may not arise before the data release. The initial upside target is near 5017; a firm break above this level would likely lead towards yesterday's high near 5044. If 5044 holds and price reverses, consider short positions. A decisive break above this level could signal an upward move of at least 30 dollars.
Trading suggestion: Consider long positions near today's low and yesterday's low if support holds; consider short positions near yesterday's high if resistance holds. Specific trading decisions should be based on real-time market conditions.
Crude oil analysis: The crude oil market opened yesterday at 94.33, experienced a minor pullback to 93.77, then rallied to a daily high of 98.46 before pulling back. The daily low was 93.61, and the market finally closed at 95.73, forming a candlestick with a very long upper shadow, resembling a bearish engulfing or hanging man pattern. Following this closing pattern, for today's session, consider long positions from 93.5 with a stop loss at 93, targeting 94.5, 95.6, 96.5, and 98.