Guotai Haitong has released a research note stating that the long-term logic for precious metals remains solid, and a long-cycle entry point is gradually emerging.

On copper, U.S. October nonfarm payrolls came in far above expectations, with strong employment and wage data boosting rate hike expectations and Treasury yields, putting pressure on copper prices. After the U.S. midterm elections, expectations for U.S.-Iran de-escalation warmed, and expectations for refined copper tax hikes cooled, leaving mixed bullish and bearish factors. Domestic low inventory supports spot prices, while high premiums suppress downstream operations, with attention on next week's U.S. CPI and import arrivals. On the equity side, focus on leading names with large future volume growth and strong earnings delivery capability.

On rare earths, light and heavy rare earth prices moved in opposite directions. Over the medium to long term, the investment value of rare earths as a key strategic resource remains favored. The main views from Guotai Haitong are as follows:

Precious Metals: Midterms Ease Rate Hike Pressure, Prices Rebounded Sharply

The Democrats retook both the Senate and the House, with expectations of fiscal constraints and reduced war intensity; falling oil prices drove inflation to peak and cooled rate hike expectations. Meanwhile, October nonfarm payrolls beat expectations, and the U.S. job market remained balanced. The October FOMC held rates steady but internal divisions widened, with a hawkish tone. Central bank reserves stood at 78.3 million ounces at the end of October, marking 24 consecutive months of increases. The long-term logic for precious metals remains solid, and a long-cycle entry point is gradually emerging.

Copper: Nonfarm Payrolls Beat Expectations, Copper Prices Range-Bound and Weak

U.S. October nonfarm payrolls came in far above expectations, with strong employment and wage data boosting rate hike expectations and Treasury yields, putting pressure on copper prices. After the U.S. midterm elections, expectations for U.S.-Iran de-escalation warmed, and expectations for refined copper tax hikes cooled, leaving mixed bullish and bearish factors. Domestic low inventory supports spot prices, while high premiums suppress downstream operations, with attention on next week's U.S. CPI and import arrivals. On the equity side, focus on leading names with large future volume growth and strong earnings delivery capability.

Aluminum: Domestic Destocking Continues, Aluminum Prices Under Pressure Amid Off-Season Demand

On the demand side, the operating rate of leading aluminum processing enterprises rose slightly overall, but aluminum plate and aluminum foil operating rates fell by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points to 68.8% and 71.0%, respectively. On the inventory side, according to SMM statistics, as of November 5, domestic mainstream consumption area electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 521,000 tons, down 28,000 tons from last Thursday; low inventory provides support, but outbound shipments have declined and off-season demand is under pressure.

Tin: Low Inventory Provides Support, Rebound Awaits Demand Improvement

Smelter restarts brought supply replenishment, while solder companies continued to purchase mainly on a need-to-buy basis. U.S. nonfarm payrolls beating expectations pushed up rate hike expectations, combined with cooling AI trading, and tin prices are expected to be range-bound and weak in the short term, while tight mine supply still provides support. On the equity side, wait for tin prices to stabilize in the short term.

Energy Metals: Weak Reality Continues, Liquidity Expectations Drive Oversold Rebound

Lithium carbonate: This week the main contract first fell below 90,000 and then rebounded. After the U.S. midterms, the market expects liquidity to return to easing, and nonferrous metals beta rose broadly; lithium carbonate, as a previously unanimously bearish target, saw concentrated short covering. Jianxiawo has resumed production, and Guoxuan's environmental assessment has been accepted, with Jiangxi supply relatively optimistic for 2027; November cathode production scheduling turned negative, and inventory is still being depleted but at a slower pace. Nickel sector: Indonesia's second batch of quotas was loose, and the 2027 contraction stance has not yet been traded; Indonesian domestic politics drove nickel prices higher. Cobalt sector: Weak demand coexists with rigid supply from the DRC, prices are range-bound at low levels, and after storage prices fell, a return of consumer electronics demand is worth anticipating.

Rare Earths: Light and Heavy Rare Earth Prices Moved in Opposite Directions

On the demand and price side, as of November 6, 2026, praseodymium-neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, and terbium oxide prices were 704,500, 1,445,000, and 6,275,000 yuan per ton, respectively, down 7,000 yuan per ton, up 15,000 yuan per ton, and down 50,000 yuan per ton, representing changes of -0.98%, +1.05%, and -0.79%. Overall rare earth trading remained cold, with prices diverging. Over the medium to long term, the investment value of rare earths as a key strategic resource remains favored.

Strategic Minor Metals: Strategic Value Stands Out

Tungsten: Mine-side reluctance to sell and long-order price increases support tungsten prices in the short term, while traditional cemented carbide orders have limited follow-through; further upside depends on whether downstream turns to active restocking. On the equity side, prioritize companies with secured raw material supply and pricing power. Uranium: October natural uranium long-term contract prices were $91.6 per pound, up from the previous month; rigid supply and nuclear power development create a long-standing uranium supply-demand gap, and uranium prices are expected to continue rising. Tantalum: Supply-demand mismatch supports tantalum prices, with tantalum ore prices at $240.5 per pound. Global tantalum ore supply is tight, and AI development is driving rapid growth in end demand; tantalum prices are expected to remain high, with continued attention on capacity releases from leading companies.

Risk warnings: Downstream demand weaker than expected, large-scale supply releases, and the Federal Reserve's rate cut process falling short of expectations.