Coal Sector Rallies as Strong Interim Results and Tight Supply Boost Sentiment

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Coal-related stocks are extending their recent upward momentum in Hong Kong trading, with sector gains continuing to build. E-COMMODITIES (01733) advanced 4.55% to HK$0.805, CHINA COAL (01898) climbed 3.93% to HK$11.63, YANCOAL AUS (03668) rose 2.74% to HK$33.02, and YANKUANG ENERGY (01171) gained 1.41% to HK$12.94.

On the news front, more than 20 coal-related listed companies have already released their interim earnings results, with three forecasting a return to profitability, six projecting narrower year-on-year losses, and six expecting net profit growth, bringing the overall positive reporting ratio to nearly 70%. According to a note from Changcheng Securities, a comparison of port coal prices shows that the average price in the first half rose approximately RMB 90 per tonne year-on-year, an increase of 13%; the second quarter saw a sequential rise of about RMB 100 per tonne versus the first quarter, up 14%. This implies that most coal companies' interim results are likely to show substantial year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth, and the cyclical low points for both annual and quarterly earnings have passed, with all published forecasts from coal companies indicating sharp year-on-year surges.

Meanwhile, Guotai Haitong Securities noted that safety inspections at coal mines in Shanxi province have been intensifying since late June. A safety incident at the Xiqu coal mine following its resumption of operations on August 5 has further strengthened market expectations that regulatory oversight will remain stringent, mine production resumptions will be limited, and output growth will slow. As market participants gain a deeper understanding of the persistence of this round of safety inspections and their impact on supply, the supply-demand balance in the coal sector is expected to continue improving.

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