Can Pang Donglai Revive Jiugui Liquor's Growth Trajectory?

Market Watcher
07-16

Amidst profound industry adjustments, liquor producers are deploying innovative marketing tactics to navigate intense competition. Jiugui Liquor Co.,Ltd. recently made headlines by partnering with retail powerhouse Pang Donglai. The collaboration was unveiled when Pang Donglai's founder showcased the "Jiugui Liquor·Free Love" product line on social media, with company executives confirming its imminent launch.

While Pang Donglai's celebrity status might temporarily boost Jiugui Liquor's sales, fundamental challenges persist beneath the marketing fanfare. Financial reports reveal a stark decline: 2024 revenue plummeted 49.70% year-over-year to RMB1.42 billion, while net profits nosedived 97.72% to RMB12.49 million. This downward spiral continued into Q1 2025 with revenue falling 30.34% and profits shrinking 56.78%.

The current struggles stem partially from earlier aggressive expansion. Between 2019-2022, Jiugui Liquor's revenue rocketed from RMB1.51 billion to RMB4.05 billion, powered by its distinctive "Fuyu" aroma profile and nationwide distribution push. Share prices soared twentyfold during this period, crowning it a star performer. However, this growth came at a cost—dealers surged 257% to 1,774, while channel inventories ballooned from 2,993 to 7,375 tons, creating unsustainable pressure.

Critical weaknesses emerged in Jiugui Liquor's premiumization strategy. Its flagship Neican series, priced at RMB1,050 per bottle ex-factory, faced severe price inversion in wholesale markets (RMB750). This margin compression triggered dealer exodus: 438 distributors exited in 2024 alone, collapsing contract liabilities from RMB1.38 billion to RMB245 million. Neican sales halved, slashing its revenue contribution from 35% to 16.55%.

The Pang Donglai partnership raises questions about strategic alignment. While leveraging the retailer's Henan-based influence and viral appeal, Jiugui Liquor's ambiguous brand positioning—torn between cultural heritage ("Xiangxi culture") and premium aspirations—creates consumer confusion. Furthermore, distribution turbulence continues: after peaking at 1,774 dealers during national expansion, 438 departed within a year, creating inventory backlogs and channel instability.

Management's shifting strategies compound these challenges. The newly announced "Two Low One Small" approach (low-end, low-alcohol, small-bottle products) marks a sharp pivot from 2024's "1+3" full-price-segment coverage. This realignment toward mass-market segments pits Jiugui against entrenched players like Niulanshan and Hongxing in a cutthroat arena where its Xiangquan series holds minimal share (5.34% of 2024 revenue). Gross margins here hover near 40%—half its premium products' historical highs—threatening profitability without massive volume growth.

Despite temporary stock bumps following the Pang Donglai announcement, institutional skepticism prevails. Without resolving core issues—channel discipline, price integrity, and coherent branding—marketing alliances offer fleeting relief. For Jiugui Liquor, sustainable growth demands confronting operational realities beyond viral hype.

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