Agricultural Commodity Market Daily Report: Protein Meal, Oils, Hogs, Eggs, and Corn Trends

Deep News
09/08

Protein Meal: On Monday, US markets were closed for a holiday, with trading set to resume Tuesday. In the domestic market, both soybean meal and rapeseed meal trended higher. Concerns over US-Iran tensions, the Black Sea region, and weather patterns continued to fuel upward momentum in agricultural prices. Physical soybean meal trading remained subdued, with weak basis levels. According to data from Mysteel, last week's domestic soybean inventories kept climbing, driven by high vessel arrivals and elevated crushing rates. While domestic soybean meal supply remains ample, expectations of rising costs are strong, so attention should be paid to capital flows.

Oils: On Monday, BMD palm oil advanced, tracking strength in the broader market. Crude oil stayed firm, and the US-Iran exchange of attacks on tankers heightened concerns in the Middle East. India's vegetable oil imports faced delayed unloading at ports due to heavy recent arrivals and slower end-user demand. High-frequency output data suggests that August Malaysian palm oil output may fall nearly 1% month-on-month, as production declines in Sabah outweigh gains in Sarawak and Peninsular Malaysia, stoking worries of an overall supply cut. A prior survey had projected Malaysian palm oil inventories to climb to 2.76 million tons, a seven-month high, on the back of output hitting its strongest level in nine months and softer exports. Domestic oils broke out to the upside, tracking overseas gains, with palm oil leading the charge, rapeseed oil following, and soybean oil relatively lagging. Palm oil's breakthrough above the 5,000 ringgit per ton mark ignited local enthusiasm, with open interest rising as prices climbed. Mysteel data shows increasing vegetable oil inventory levels, with supply rising while demand contracts. Going forward, the market will watch the Strait of Hormuz shipping situation, as well as oil consumption and capital movements.

Hogs: On Monday, hog futures traded in a volatile range, with the main 2611 contract closing up 0.25% at 11,795 yuan per ton. In the physical market, the national daily average hog price was 10.9 yuan per kilogram, down 0.14 yuan from the previous day, according to Zhuochuang data. In the benchmark delivery area of Henan, the average price was 11.02 yuan per kilogram, down 0.3 yuan, while Guangdong was flat and Shandong, Sichuan, and Liaoning all declined. Farming operations maintained a normal sales pace, keeping supply steady and demand stable. Some markets saw weaker offtake, leading to lower cash prices while futures remained rangebound. With ample supply as the backdrop, hog prices are likely to continue adjusting in a sideways pattern. The impact of spot prices and market sentiment on futures remains a key focus.

Eggs: On Monday, egg futures extended their rebound, with the main 2610 contract rising 2.72% intraday to close at 3,896 yuan per 500 kilograms. Spot data from Zhuochuang showed the national average egg price at 5.03 yuan per jin, up 0.07 yuan from the prior day. In producing areas, Ningjin's pink-shell eggs rose 0.05 yuan to 4.95 yuan per jin, while Heishan's brown-shell eggs held steady at 4.8 yuan. In consuming regions, Puxi's brown-shell eggs were flat at 5.13 yuan per jin, and Guangzhou's brown-shell eggs gained 0.05 yuan to 5.23 yuan. With the peak demand season underway and consumption recovering after earlier price dips, spot prices have climbed week-on-week. Ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day stocking, egg prices are expected to remain firm, with basis convergence likely occurring through upward price moves. Watch how demand impacts cash prices and how sentiment influences the futures market.

Corn: On Monday, the main corn contract fell in a de-risking move, as prices came under pressure before a late-session rebound on increased buying at lows. Northeast corn prices were largely stable, though market activity was muted. In Jinzhou, Heishan, Liaoning, new-crop corn with 30% moisture opened at around 0.86 yuan per jin. Most traders are awaiting the new crop's arrival, so attention is on farmer selling behavior and downstream purchasing once it hits the market. Over the weekend, North China corn prices kept sliding, with old-crop and spring corn continuing to supply the market as autumn corn begins scattered harvesting. The seasonal supply pressure is becoming evident, with deep-processing plants seeing high delivery volumes and successively lowering their bids. As autumn corn supplies increase, prices remain on a seasonal downtrend. In the consuming regions, corn prices stayed stable over the weekend. As the new crop gradually comes to market, holders are accelerating inventory clearance, weighing on old-crop prices in those regions. End-users are keeping low inventories and buying on an as-needed basis, with some turning to imported grains and feed substitutes. Technically, open interest in the corn weighted contract is rising, and the medium-term uptrend remains intact. Once the short-term correction concludes, prices are likely to resume their rebound.

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