Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. released a research report indicating intensified competition in the packaging and printing industry. Leading companies such as Yuto Packaging Technology Co., Ltd. and HeXing Packaging Co., Ltd. saw single-digit revenue growth in the first quarter of 2026, alongside improved profitability. The consumer goods segment remained stable, with companies like Baiya Shares Co., Ltd. demonstrating earnings flexibility. The paper sector faced profit margin pressure due to high costs. In home furnishings, upholstered furniture outperformed custom furniture, while the export segment was impacted by a high base of comparison and external disruptions, suggesting a focus on stock-specific alpha opportunities. The main views of Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. are as follows:

Packaging & Printing: Industry competition intensified, with the logic of market share concentration among leaders and profit improvement gradually being validated in Q1 2026. Paper Packaging: Yuto Packaging Technology Co., Ltd. is estimated to have achieved single-digit revenue growth in Q1 2026, with an increasing contribution from overseas bases. Growth in operating profit is expected to outpace revenue growth (although reported net profit growth is estimated to be flat, considering share-based incentive expense amortization). HeXing Packaging Co., Ltd. actively promoted cost reduction and efficiency enhancement in domestic production capacity, estimated to achieve single-digit revenue growth with profit growth faster than revenue. Plastic Packaging: Yongxin Shares Co., Ltd. was affected by rising crude oil prices; revenue for Q1 2026 is estimated to have grown, while profits were likely flat. Metal Packaging: Influenced by price increases for two-piece cans in late 2025 and a significant rise in aluminum prices, Baosteel Packaging Co., Ltd. and Shenxing Co., Ltd. are estimated to have achieved double-digit revenue growth in Q1 2026, with operating profits likely flat. Smart Cards: Donggang Co., Ltd. benefited from an optimized competitive landscape in the smart card industry and is estimated to have achieved approximately 10% growth in both revenue and profit for Q1 2026.

Consumer Goods: Despite lingering external pressures, leading companies demonstrated stable growth in Q1 2026. Baiya Shares Co., Ltd. is estimated to have achieved positive year-on-year growth in both revenue and profit for Q1, with optimism for earnings flexibility in 2026. Dengkang Oral Care Co., Ltd. is estimated to have achieved double-digit year-on-year growth in revenue and profit, supported by successful product mix upgrades. Beijiajie Co., Ltd. maintained steady growth in its core OEM business, with its Shanenkan probiotics business expanding rapidly. CHJ Co., Ltd. maintained strong terminal sales and steady store expansion despite high gold price pressures, estimated to achieve double-digit growth in both revenue and profit for Q1 2026, with revenue growth outpacing profit growth. Anfu Technology Co., Ltd. was affected by the termination of its Red Bull distribution business; Q1 2026 revenue is estimated to have declined by a single-digit percentage, with net profit likely flat year-on-year (although attributable net profit is estimated to have seen high double-digit growth due to an increased shareholding percentage). M&G Co., Ltd. saw its traditional core business potentially stabilizing and its Keliping division's growth gradually recovering; Q1 2026 revenue and profit are estimated to have achieved single-digit growth. Guangbo Co., Ltd. benefited from overseas expansion of IP derivatives and a recovery in its B2B business, with Q1 revenue and profit expected to achieve double-digit growth. Bull Group Co., Ltd. is estimated to have returned to positive revenue growth in Q1, with product price increases partially offsetting raw material costs, leading to a limited impact on Q1 profits. Mingyue Lens Co., Ltd. benefited from product mix upgrades and an increasing share of myopia control lenses; revenue is estimated to have grown at a single-digit rate, with profit growth outpacing revenue growth.

Paper: Q1 performance was affected by the Spring Festival holiday, with paper prices remaining subdued and rising costs pressuring profitability. Containerboard & Corrugated Paper: Prices fell rapidly from December 2025 but began to stabilize in January 2026. Post-holiday price increases proceeded smoothly, but due to the impact of high-cost wastepaper inventory, Q1 2026 profitability is estimated to have declined slightly quarter-on-quarter. Pulp-based Paper: Pulp costs continued to rise, but constrained by supply-demand pressures, price increases for cultural paper and whiteboard paper were difficult. Industry profitability in Q1 2026 is estimated to have contracted quarter-on-quarter. Sun Paper Co., Ltd., benefiting from new capacity, is estimated to have achieved quarter-on-quarter profit expansion. Specialty Paper: This niche market experienced differentiation. Some segments with improved supply-demand dynamics saw relatively successful price increases. Huawang New Material Technology Co., Ltd. and Xianhe Co., Ltd. are estimated to have achieved quarter-on-quarter profit improvement in Q1 2026.

Home Furnishings: Facing high base pressure in Q1 2026, upholstered furniture outperformed custom furniture. High base pressure from government subsidy orders in the first half of 2025 led to overall pressure on Q1 2026 home furnishings earnings. Upholstered furniture, benefiting from replacement demand and market share concentration among leaders, performed better than custom furniture. Upholstered Furniture: Kuka Home Co., Ltd. saw improved product competitiveness domestically and stable performance in exports, with Q1 2026 revenue expected to grow. Mattress companies De Rucci Co., Ltd. (estimated revenue growth) and Sleemon Co., Ltd. (estimated flat year-on-year revenue). Custom Furniture: Revenue continued to decline. Oppein Home Group Inc. and Suofeiya Home Collection Co., Ltd. are estimated to have seen double-digit revenue declines, focusing internally on cost reduction and efficiency improvement. Sector valuations are at low levels, releasing risk. Leading companies have increased dividend payout ratios, providing a margin of safety. In the medium to long term, replacement demand and rising penetration of new smart home product categories are expected to support industry growth. Leading companies are strengthening their fundamentals during the downturn, potentially accelerating industry consolidation in the future. Tiles & Panels: Tianan New Material Co., Ltd. is estimated to have seen a slight decline in Q1 2026 revenue, but achieved double-digit profit growth, primarily contributed by its automotive leather, film, and overseas businesses.

Exports: High base and external disruptions created significant profit pressure in Q1 2026; Q2 base effect lowers, focus on individual alpha. The first quarter of 2025 saw a "rush to export" effect and significant exchange gains, creating a high base of comparison. Since Q1 2026, the rapid appreciation of the Renminbi, along with external factors such as war leading to increased shipping costs and raw material prices, is expected to put significant pressure on the earnings of export companies in Q1 2026. The base effect lowers in Q2 2026, and the impact of disruptions like exchange rates is expected to diminish marginally, suggesting a focus on stocks with individual alpha potential. Zhongxin Co., Ltd.'s Thailand base profitability is significantly higher than domestic; Q1 2026 profit is estimated to show high growth. Jiangxin Home Furnishings Co., Ltd., leveraging product advantages, is estimated to maintain double-digit or higher revenue growth in Q1 2026.永艺股份有限公司 is estimated to have achieved double-digit year-on-year revenue growth in Q1, with optimism for profit flexibility in 2026 and the development of its domestic brand. Huali Co., Ltd. is estimated to have achieved double-digit year-on-year revenue growth in Q1, particularly driven by the rapid expansion of its cross-border e-commerce business. Home-Link Co., Ltd. was dragged down by bond interest expenses, estimated to report a net loss in Q1, but optimism exists for the breakout of its 3D printing filament business in 2026. Gorgeous Co., Ltd.: Continued high demand in North America and recovering orders in the Asia-Pacific region are expected to drive double-digit growth in revenue and profit for Q1 2026. Yiyi Co., Ltd. saw sequential improvement in customer orders, but due to the high base in Q1 2025, Q1 2026 revenue is estimated to grow at a single-digit rate. Yuanfei Pet Products Co., Ltd., with its leading Cambodia base and growing domestic own-brand business, is estimated to achieve over 20% growth in revenue and profit for Q1 2026. Jiayi Co., Ltd. faced a high base in Q1 2026, with revenue and profit still estimated to decline. Chuangyuan Co., Ltd. saw stable demand from downstream office stationery and rapid growth in its fitness equipment cross-border e-commerce business, driving double-digit revenue growth in Q1 2026, but profit declined due to Renminbi appreciation.

Risk warnings: Property market improvement falling short of expectations, consumer recovery falling short of expectations, and significant fluctuations in raw material prices.