Bitcoin has been hovering near the $60,000 mark since June, and market sentiment is undergoing a subtle shift. According to Bitget data, BTC is currently priced at $64,333, up 0.42% in the last 24 hours. The Fear and Greed Index has recovered to 41, returning to neutral territory. Over the past day, total liquidations across all open contracts reached $203 million, with long positions accounting for $106 million. These metrics suggest the market is digesting volatility, while institutional views on the bottom range and future trajectory remain sharply divided.
VanEck's research team points out that the nearly 11-month correction may be nearing its end, with the market potentially entering a new accumulation phase. Using their "Bitcoin Market Capitulation Checklist," digital assets research head Matthew Sigel and senior investment analyst Patrick Bush found that 8 of 12 indicators have triggered extreme pessimism signals, and all 12 have entered panic-selling territory within the past three months. The researchers believe this marks the near-completion of the price "capitulation" phase. Meanwhile, inflows are improving, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording nearly $300 million in net inflows on Monday, the highest single-day total since May 5. Historically, the past three bear markets have seen average drawdowns lasting about 12.7 months from peak to trough; this cycle has entered its 11th month, and the market may complete its bottoming process between September and November. However, VanEck cautions that when 8 to 12 indicators simultaneously flash extreme signals, Bitcoin's average returns over the next 90 and 180 days tend to underperform long-term benchmarks. The expected low this cycle is likely to be more moderate than previous ones, thanks to spot ETF development, institutional participation, and the absence of contagion shocks like FTX, Celsius, or Terra Luna.
On-chain data from Glassnode indicates the market is in a state of high contraction, with seller pressure weakening but buyers not yet stepping in decisively. BTC is largely trading within the $63,000 to $68,700 range, with activity at its lowest since 2019. Woofun AI data shows the 30-day "seller exhaustion indicator" has dropped to its lowest level since 2013, though a historical bottoming signal has yet to be confirmed. If BTC loses $58,500, the next support could be around $52,800.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said in a Bloomberg interview that the market's lack of reaction to negative news is a key "bottoming signal." Whether it's Michael Saylor selling Bitcoin or the sharply reduced odds of the CLARITY Act passing, BTC has not declined significantly and has even risen against the trend. Hougan expects a stronger crypto market rally by year-end, with the next wave of buyers coming from large wealth management platforms, making this bull run slower, less volatile, and more institutionalized.
BIT noted via Twitter that Bitcoin has historically traded about 40% below its long-term market average during bear phases; if that pattern repeats, the price could dip to around $45,500. However, this is not the base case. BIT remains relatively optimistic, seeing potential downside risk of about 20% against roughly 60% upside, making the risk-reward ratio increasingly attractive.
Bitfinex analysis suggests Bitcoin is exhibiting mid-to-late bear market characteristics. The price is sandwiched between the long-term holder realized price of $52,699—the bear market floor where long-term holders remain profitable—and the short-term holder realized price of $67,176, where recent buyers are all underwater. The median realized price for BTC sits around $63,200, providing support over the past two weeks; a break below could prompt a retest of $57,803.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes published an article titled "Yen-quake," arguing that the yen is currently the most undervalued currency and must appreciate under pressure from both the US and China as well as domestic Japanese politics. He outlined three possible paths and believes the most likely scenario—favored by both the US Treasury and Japanese political circles—involves Japan's Ministry of Finance using the Fed's FIMA repo facility to pledge US Treasuries as collateral for dollars, then selling dollars in the FX market to buy yen, and recycling yen proceeds into Japanese government bonds and equities. This would expand the Fed's balance sheet, boost dollar liquidity, and drive yen appreciation while orderly unwinding yen carry trades. Historically, Fed balance sheet expansion has been highly correlated with Bitcoin gains, and Hayes expects this operation, once underway, to bring significant liquidity tailwinds to Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Trader Killa noted that Bitcoin has climbed back above the Mayer Multiple level of 0.8 after briefly dipping below it. He pointed out that in 2022, BTC also briefly broke this level before reclaiming it. Killa emphasized that the real confirmation signal in 2022 came when Bitcoin reclaimed its 200-day moving average, after which the bull market began. Currently, BTC's 200-day MA sits near $69,500. He believes the next step is simply waiting for Bitcoin to break and hold above the 200-day MA; once that happens, the market can be considered officially turning bullish.