On May 27, CNOOC fell 3.05% in regular trading to HK$26.12, with trading volume reaching HK$724 million, marking the third consecutive session of significant declines.

On the news front, Morgan Stanley recently cut its target price for CNOOC from HK$20.7 to HK$17.6, lowering its long-term oil price assumption to US$55 per barrel. The bank trimmed total earnings forecasts by 13%-15% for FY2025 and FY2026, while reducing Brent crude estimates to US$65 and US$62 per barrel respectively. Despite maintaining an Overweight rating, the bank acknowledged cost-control leadership among Chinese majors. Concurrently, OPEC+ members plan to continue raising output quotas in the coming months, intensifying supply-surplus expectations. Meanwhile, US-Iran peace negotiations have entered a final phase, with reports of a 60-day ceasefire extension and commitments to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, effectively eroding the geopolitical risk premium that had previously supported prices above US$110 per barrel. As a pure upstream operator, CNOOC faces direct profit compression from every dollar decline in oil prices, amplifying downside pressure on shares in the near term.

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