Gold and Oil Market Analysis: Daily Trend Forecast and Friday Session Trading Strategy

Deep News
09/26

**Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis:**

September 26th, Gold Fundamental Analysis: On Thursday (September 25th) at 8:30 PM Beijing time, the U.S. Department of Commerce released the final Q2 GDP annualized quarterly rate, which was revised upward to 3.8%, significantly exceeding market expectations of 3.3% and the previous value of 3.3%. This demonstrated unexpected economic resilience driven by declining imports and recovering consumption. Simultaneously, August durable goods orders increased 2.9% month-over-month, far surpassing expectations of -0.5% and the revised previous value of -2.7%, with transportation equipment orders surging 7.9% and core orders excluding transportation also rising 0.4%. Initial jobless claims dropped to 218,000, below the expected 235,000 and previous 232,000. These data releases immediately ignited market sentiment, catching traders who were already positioned for Federal Reserve rate cut expectations off guard. The U.S. Dollar Index surged over 36 points in response, while spot gold fell under pressure by approximately $25. Prior to the announcement, traders had largely bet on weak data to reinforce dovish expectations. This reversal not only reshaped short-term path dependency but also halted this week's risk-averse sentiment, giving rise to concerns about economic overheating.

**Gold Technical Analysis:** From the current market perspective, gold is expected to exhibit high-level consolidation within a bullish trend on Thursday. While the outlook remains positive, one should not be overly optimistic about its momentum. Following Wednesday's rise and adjustment, with a high at 2,678 and low at 2,617, today's performance is expected to remain within this range, allowing for effective high-short and low-long trading within this corridor. Maintaining previous principles, although gold appears bullish, chasing highs must be avoided. Wait for pullback adjustments to complete each trading day, then execute effective long positions at key support levels.

From a technical standpoint, Wednesday's decline resulted in a bearish daily candle with potential Bollinger Band contraction. Under the 2,680 resistance, gold's bullish momentum appears insufficient, so attention should be paid to potential continued adjustment space. If the momentum is strong, this wave could reach the 2,580 vicinity, making Thursday's changes particularly important. Currently, gold hasn't changed its temporary bullish trend, only transitioning from previous absolute strength oscillation to high-level consolidation. Therefore, it's necessary to observe the continuity of the bullish trend. The H4 cycle shows Bollinger Band contraction and moving average convergence, indicating obvious consolidation behavior. Watch 2,615 and 2,580 as support levels below, and 2,678 and 2,680 as resistance levels above. If today shows high-level consolidation with strong bullish performance, gold may rise again to 2,678. If bullish performance is insufficient today, gold may retest 2,615 or break below to reach the 2,580 low. Therefore, consider attempting longs at the 2,615 or 2,580 support levels intraday. Overall, today's gold short-term strategy should focus primarily on buying dips, with secondary consideration for selling rallies. Key short-term resistance is at 2,665-2,675, while key short-term support is at 2,625-2,615.

**Latest Oil Market Trend Analysis:**

**Oil Fundamental Analysis:** On Thursday (September 25th), oil prices surged approximately 2%, touching seven-week highs. This rally was primarily driven by an unexpected decline in U.S. weekly crude oil inventories, intensifying market concerns about supply tightness amid export disruptions from Iraq, Venezuela, and Russia. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 607,000 barrels last week, well below Reuters analysts' survey expectations of a 235,000 barrel increase, though more moderate than the 3.8 million barrel decline reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday. In futures markets, as of 1:23 PM Eastern Time (1:23 AM Beijing Time), Brent crude futures (LCOc1) rose $1.64 to $69.27 per barrel, up 2.4%; West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures (CLc1) gained $1.59 to $65.00 per barrel, up 2.5%. This positioned Brent for its highest closing price since August 1st, while WTI reached its September 2nd high.

**Oil Technical Analysis:** From the daily chart perspective, after consecutive bearish candles halted, oil formed a narrow-range bottom area. Oil prices repeatedly crossed through the moving average system, indicating a medium-term objective trend of consolidation. Monday saw oil briefly break below the range's lower boundary, but failed to form a continuous, forceful downward trend. Medium-term oil movement is expected to maintain weak consolidation patterns. Short-term (1H) oil movement continues its upward trajectory with alternating primary and secondary advances creating new highs. The moving average system shows bullish alignment with oil prices forming solid support, indicating an objective short-term upward trend direction. MACD indicator's fast and slow lines crossed at high levels above the zero axis, with bullish momentum still dominant. Intraday oil movement is likely to continue rising. Overall, today's oil trading strategy should focus primarily on buying dips, with secondary consideration for selling rallies. Key short-term resistance is at 66.5-67.5, while key short-term support is at 64.0-63.0.

免责声明:投资有风险,本文并非投资建议,以上内容不应被视为任何金融产品的购买或出售要约、建议或邀请,作者或其他用户的任何相关讨论、评论或帖子也不应被视为此类内容。本文仅供一般参考,不考虑您的个人投资目标、财务状况或需求。TTM对信息的准确性和完整性不承担任何责任或保证,投资者应自行研究并在投资前寻求专业建议。

热议股票

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10