On July 2nd, Bitcoin and U.S. stocks face new macroeconomic challenges in the second half of the year. CPT Markets notes that reports suggest a combination of AI-driven trading, monetary policy, and shifts in market structure could collectively fuel greater volatility in risk assets.

In the first half of the year, technology stocks performed strongly, driven by the AI theme, while Bitcoin notably lagged behind. This highlights a divergence in capital allocation across different risk assets. CPT Markets believes that Bitcoin's significant decline this year has prompted the market to reassess its correlation with growth assets.

Some analysts argue that AI is no longer indiscriminately boosting all technology companies but is instead distinguishing between genuine beneficiaries and those potentially at risk of displacement. A similar logic could impact digital assets, with capital flowing towards assets with more explainable cash flows or clearer narratives.

Key Factors for a Potential Bitcoin Recovery

The potential for Bitcoin to recover in the latter half of the year hinges on a combination of changes in macro interest rates, ETF demand, and overall market risk appetite. CPT Markets analysis indicates that if capital rotates away from highly crowded trades, Bitcoin could find temporary support.