Copper Prices Surge Again: Goldman Sachs Optimistic Amid Mining Output Cuts

Stock News
10/24

Goldman Sachs traders have recently expressed a bullish outlook on copper prices in the short term, especially after Chile's Antofagasta Plc set conservative production targets, raising supply concerns. Consequently, copper prices have climbed to a two-week high. Widely utilized in renewable energy, electronics, and construction wiring, copper has surged over 20% this year, bolstered by mine shutdowns and production constraints across several regions globally. On Thursday, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose by 1.8%. Antofagasta announced it expects to hit the lower end of its production target for the year, and its 2026 production target is below analysts' expectations, accelerating the price increase. Analysts at BMO Capital Markets stated, "Overall, their operational updates are a mixed bag relative to our expectations. The initial 2026 copper production guidance may be slightly disappointing." Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX.US) also released its quarterly report on Thursday, reaffirming that the company’s production for the remainder of this year and 2026 could see significant declines following the fatal accident at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia on September 8. Goldman Sachs analysts noted that during the annual LME Week held in London, most industry participants they spoke to expect copper prices to test historical highs in the coming months. Should prices break above $10,900 per ton, some investors plan to increase their positions. Former President Donald Trump had proposed tariffs on copper imports but ultimately applied tariffs only to value-added products and not to exchange-traded bulk copper, creating significant arbitrage opportunities. Currently, COMEX copper futures prices remain higher than the global benchmark LME copper prices, with copper continuing to flow into the U.S. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote, "In the short term, we believe the favorable arbitrage opportunities between COMEX and LME will significantly tighten the physical copper market outside the U.S. and pose short-term upside risks to our LME copper price forecast of $10,000 to $11,000 per ton." On Thursday, LME copper prices closed at $10,854.50 per ton. Most other metal prices rose, although zinc prices saw a slight decline. With LME zinc inventories continuously decreasing, zinc buyers are facing historic shortages. However, Goldman Sachs analysts project that zinc exports from China will bolster inventories. They noted, "The global zinc market is currently balanced, but regional disparities have emerged—China is in a surplus while other parts of the world are in deficit. In the short term, our contacts are aligned with our view that the arbitrage window for zinc exports from China will open to achieve global market rebalancing."

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