The copper market has demonstrated notable resilience in 2026, maintaining a relatively strong price trend despite multiple adverse factors including geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a pullback in gold prices, and periodic dollar strengthening. The following analysis breaks down the key drivers behind copper's upward momentum to help readers understand the underlying logic of this rally.

At the supply chain level, copper concentrate treatment charges (TC) have fallen into deeply negative territory, signaling severe raw material scarcity. The Democratic Republic of Congo is considering implementing export restrictions on copper concentrate, further amplifying the tightness in ore supply. Domestic anode copper supply is tightening, and combined with processing losses at smelters, electrolytic copper production has declined year-on-year during July-August, significantly constraining冶炼 capacity release.

Inventory levels outside the United States are consistently declining, with both LME and SHFE social inventories maintaining low percentile positions, providing solid physical market support. Market speculation over potential US tariffs on refined copper has kept monthly import volumes elevated, while the persistent premium of COMEX over LME prices has concentrated supply flows toward the United States, exacerbating shortages in non-US regions.

On the macro front, weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll data has cooled rate hike expectations, marginally reducing the dollar's headwind pressure on copper prices. Domestically, China's steady pro-growth policies continue to provide support, with green energy, energy storage, and computing power sectors expanding vigorously, generating new demand for copper consumption.

Key risks to monitor include potential disappointment in domestic end-user demand recovery, shifts in overseas policy stances, and possible exemptions or delays in the Democratic Republic of Congo's export restrictions. These variables could alter the current supply-demand dynamics.