Shanxi Securities Company Limited (002500.SZ) released a research report stating that the high uncertainty of the U.S.-Iran conflict corresponds to high volatility, but oil prices are unlikely to see a significant short-term decline. Coal PPI has turned positive, indicating bullish coal prices, and coal stocks are expected to experience a Davis double play. The current situation is most favorable for YANKUANG ENERGY (01171.HK), which has overseas capacity layout, and CHINA COAL ENERGY (01898.HK), which is highly correlated with coal chemical industries. The main views of Shanxi Securities Company Limited are as follows:

In April 2026, coal imports saw a slight increase, while import coal prices declined. Regarding import volume, coal imports from January to April 2026 totaled 149 million tons, with a cumulative growth rate of -2.1%. Imports in April were 33.08 million tons, down 12.56% year-on-year and 15.31% month-on-month. By coal type, the four major coal categories showed divergence, with only anthracite recording a year-on-year increase. Thermal coal imports contracted year-on-year, mainly due to reduced volumes from Mongolia and Australia. Coking coal imports contracted year-on-year due to reduced volumes from Russia. Lignite imports decreased significantly year-on-year, primarily due to production cuts in Indonesia. The increase in anthracite imports mainly came from Russia, but the absolute volume is limited.

In terms of price, the average import coal price from January to April 2026 was $76 per ton, up 2.96% from the average price last year. The import price for all coal types in April was $79 per ton, up 7.28% year-on-year. By coal type, import prices for all categories increased year-on-year to varying degrees, with lignite showing the largest gain.

Indonesia is implementing controls on coal exports, escalating resource nationalism. In May 2026, the Indonesian President announced that sales of resources such as coal must be conducted through state-owned enterprises designated by the government. The new policy includes a transition period, continuing the trend of resource nationalism observed since 2026. This channel control on coal exports represents an escalation from previous production reduction measures, shifting from "reducing volume" to "controlling supply sources." Specifically, cash flow from Indonesian coal exports must first be collected by the state-owned enterprise platform before being distributed to relevant companies, effectively placing supply under state control. The new policy is relatively more irreversible and will have a more profound impact on Indonesia's coal exports.

In the short term, this reinforces expectations of a contraction in Indonesian coal exports and is bullish for low-calorific coal prices. Spot coal exports from Indonesia are expected to be more significantly affected in the short term, while medium- to long-term downstream buyers may prefer stable long-term contracts. From the perspective of Indonesia's production capacity structure, spot transactions are more prevalent among small and medium-sized mines, particularly those producing low-calorific coal, which are likely to face more pronounced impacts. Therefore, the new policy will continue to impact the export supply from "small mines producing low-calorific coal," thereby reducing China's lignite imports and supporting higher prices for low-calorific coal.

Recommendations: Regarding thermal coal, Indonesia's strengthened resource nationalism has further raised expectations for a contraction in low-calorific coal imports. China's coal sector involves energy security and exhibits high HALO (High Asset, Low Operating leverage) attributes. Focus on Xinji Energy, Jinneng Holding Coal Industry Group, Huayang Energy, Shanxi Coal International Energy Group, and Shaanxi Coal Industry Company. For coking coal, following the Shanxi mine accident, safety supervision may be upgraded. Under the logic of production reduction, coking coal stands to benefit the most. Focus on Shanxi Coking Coal Group, Lu'an Chemical Industry, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining, Huaibei Mining Holdings, and Panjiang Coal and Electricity.

Risk warnings: Domestic demand may fall short of expectations, domestic supply may increase significantly, and international coal prices may decline sharply.