On February 11, 2026, domestic commodity futures experienced significant volatility, influenced by easing geopolitical tensions, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and supply-demand imbalances.
Pre-market Analysis: The new Federal Reserve Chair's core strategy emphasizes relaxing AI regulations to accelerate development, given the efficiency of private sector advancements and expanding U.S. technological leadership. The Fed's analysis suggests that robust demand coupled with insufficient supply could be mitigated if AI and automation meet domestic needs, potentially resolving inflation concerns. A production revolution could also alleviate U.S. national debt pressures. This approach resembles a high-stakes national gamble—combining rate cuts with balance sheet reduction to incentivize leveraged growth in efficient sectors. Success hinges on whether AI can substantially boost supply-side productivity within the United States. While this long-term outlook appears speculative, industrial metals like copper and aluminum may present opportunities this year. Gold, driven by geopolitical shifts, follows a distinct trajectory. Investors might consider long-dated call options on non-ferrous metals, allocating 1% of capital for leveraged exposure.
Market Overview: Gold and silver surged nearly 30% and 70% in January, respectively, reaching record highs before a sharp pullback triggered by Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's nomination. Crude oil fell 4% as U.S.-Iran tensions eased, though it posted monthly gains alongside natural gas. Industrial metals retreated after a rally. The super-cycle has ended, pressuring exporter finances but offering temporary inflation relief. Policy uncertainty warrants caution.
Market Assessment: Top-Down Analysis Commodities trended sideways with a slight upward bias. Strongest sectors included crude oil and feedstuffs, non-ferrous metals, grains, and new energy. Top performers were fuel oil, soybean No. 1, and crude oil. Conclusion: Markets remain volatile with emerging but unstable bullish momentum. Light positions and trend-following strategies are advised, with strict risk control.
Global Context: Weakening USD amid Fed rate cut expectations supports commodities. Geopolitical disruptions amplify energy supply chain volatility, while domestic stabilization policies bolster industrial demand. Commodity markets maintain a震荡偏强 (sideways-to-strong) pattern.
Key Trading Strategies: - Focus commodities: live hogs, fuel oil, soybean No. 1. - Live hogs: Short positions achieved 11% profit. Half/one-third of positions were closed at open, followed by phased profit-taking, reducing total exposure from 10% to 2.5%. - Fuel oil/soybean No. 1: Monitored long opportunities without chasing rallies.
Short-Term Review: Live hog shorts secured profits through staged exits, avoiding drawdowns. Risk was minimized by progressively lowering仓位 (position sizing).
Reflections: Live hog strategy succeeded by avoiding premature bottom-fishing in a downtrend. Patience was maintained with potential long positions, adhering to risk management principles. Light仓位 and trend adherence remain crucial amid ongoing volatility.