Gold experienced a notable correction in March, temporarily pushing its year-to-date gains into negative territory. Although prices have rebounded recently, the market's enthusiasm for chasing rallies has clearly cooled following the downturn.

A significant change has emerged in China's gold consumption market: multiple well-known gold brands have reduced prices on their fixed-price gold products to varying degrees. Some brands have simultaneously increased discount offers, making this a major focus in the recent consumer market.

Many brands are now cutting prices and promoting gold jewelry. Since the beginning of the month, numerous consumers have shared their observations on social media, sparking widespread discussion about price adjustments on certain fixed-price gold jewelry items from several famous brands.

The adjustments cover popular categories currently favored by consumers, such as lucky beads and zodiac pendants. Many who had already made purchases expressed frustration about "buying at a loss." One consumer noted in a post that they purchased a Chow Sang Sang collaborative lucky bead in March, only to see its price drop by over 200 yuan in less than a month.

Fixed-price gold jewelry refers to gold items sold at a set retail price that does not fluctuate with daily gold prices. These products are not sold by weight, and details like craftsmanship fees are not separately indicated, often resulting in a per-gram price significantly higher than weight-based pieces.

Some fixed-price products at China Gold stores, including zodiac pendants and lucky beads, have also seen price adjustments. Store staff indicated that products previously priced above 3,000 yuan are now 400 to 500 yuan cheaper after adjustments and discounts compared to late March.

Some gold stores, while not explicitly announcing price cuts, have quietly increased discounts on fixed-price items. Brands like Luk Fook Jewelry and Lao Miao Gold, for example, are offering additional discounts on already reduced prices.

Price fluctuations are also evident for fixed-price gold products sold online. On a major e-commerce platform, transaction records for a popular足金小金豆 from Lao Feng Xiang's official flagship store show a clear price change: the actual transaction price was 1,314 yuan on April 8, but the listed price had been adjusted to 1,195 yuan by April 14—a noticeable drop of 119 yuan in just one week.

Beyond direct price cuts and increased discounts, some gold brands have launched diversified promotional activities to attract customers. Brands like Jun Pei, for instance, have introduced spend-and-save benefits, offering instant discounts upon reaching certain payment thresholds. Simultaneously, brands are running points exchange programs where consumers can redeem shopping vouchers based on their accumulated points.

Earlier, due to a sudden sharp drop in gold prices, Chow Tai Fook's plan to adjust prices for its fixed-price products was temporarily halted.

Shortly after the beginning of the year, gold prices surged猛烈ly, with spot prices approaching the historical high of $5,600 per ounce. Domestic gold jewelry markets, feeling confident, successively initiated waves of price increases. Some brands even implemented multiple rounds of hikes, led initially by Chow Sang Sang, followed by brands like CHJ Jewelry, Bao Lan, Lin Chao, Jun Pei, and Lao Pu Gold, with increases generally exceeding 10%. While other gold brands planned to follow suit, subsequent geopolitical conflicts introduced剧烈 volatility to gold markets, disrupting this trend.

Gold ETFs also experienced net outflows amid the high volatility. According to data released by the World Gold Council on April 8, global gold ETFs saw net outflows of $12 billion in March, the largest monthly outflow on record, halving the net inflow scale for the first quarter compared to earlier expectations.

However, this massive withdrawal was not synchronized globally but displayed an extreme pattern of "East buying, West selling." The outflows were almost entirely concentrated in European and American markets, particularly North America, which saw a single-month net outflow of $13 billion, directly ending a nine-month streak of consecutive net inflows.

Meanwhile, the European market also experienced a slight outflow of approximately $100 million. As Western markets sold off significantly, Asian markets saw an inflow of $2 billion against the trend, highlighting entirely different investment and allocation logics.

Many private banks remain optimistic about gold allocation. Currently, international investment banks maintain a positive outlook on gold's long-term trajectory. Goldman Sachs holds a long-term bullish view, targeting $5,400 to $6,000 per ounce, arguing that gold has transitioned from a traditional safe-haven asset to a "sticky hedge" tool.

UBS Securities predicts the international spot gold price will reach a target of $6,200 per ounce in the coming months.

J.P. Morgan forecasts that gold prices will hit $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026 but suggests that prices could pull back if the Middle East situation eases, advising profit-taking on rallies.

Billionaire investor and Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio has also expressed support for gold. He stated that the current economic climate faces significant risks. Sovereign bond investors are undergoing a structural shift in asset allocation, moving from fiat currencies towards hard assets like gold. "Gold has now become the world's second most important currency, with central banks and sovereign wealth funds continuously increasing their holdings," he emphasized, noting that gold's core advantage lies in its safety, being the currency least prone to devaluation or confiscation—an attribute that has become consensus.

HSBC Private Banking and Wealth recently announced that, due to the risk of war involving Iran and potential oil price shocks, it has downgraded its rating on emerging market Asian equities and significantly reduced its allocation to the Indian market, shifting instead to increased holdings in gold, cash, and hedge funds.

Patrick Ho, Chief Investment Officer for North Asia at HSBC Private Banking, stated that the team has conducted a comprehensive review of asset allocation to limit excessive risk exposure. He indicated that the extreme uncertainty surrounding the Middle East situation has raised concerns about energy security and global capital flows, and the bank is closely monitoring various risks.

In this adjustment, the Indian stock market bears the brunt. HSBC downgraded its rating from neutral directly to "underweight," calling it the "most vulnerable" link among Asian emerging markets. High energy prices could not only fuel domestic inflation but also trigger capital outflows.

To hedge against potential extreme volatility, HSBC recommends investors shift their focus to defensive assets. Gold, cash, and hedge funds capable of profiting in neutral market environments have become primary destinations for避险 capital.

Another globally renowned private bank, Union Bancaire Privée (UBP), has also resumed buying gold.

According to the latest disclosure from this Swiss private bank, it is gradually reintegrating gold into the investment portfolios of its discretionary mandate clients. Previously, the bank had reduced its gold exposure from approximately 10% to around 3%. Since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East in late February, gold prices saw a noticeable decline as market worries about potential interest rate hikes and tightening liquidity forced traders to sell assets to cover losses elsewhere.

Paras Gupta, Head of Discretionary Portfolio Management, Asia, at UBP, stated, "After the washout of one-sided long positions, we have taken the first step in rebuilding our gold portfolio."

He mentioned that gold positioning between institutional and retail investors is now "relatively balanced." As of the end of last year, the bank managed client assets totaling approximately CHF 184.5 billion (roughly USD 233 billion).

UBP plans to continue expanding its gold allocation, with current holdings restored to about 6% of its discretionary portfolios, primarily in the form of ETFs.

Gupta stated that the bank still expects gold prices to rise to $6,000 per ounce by the end of this year, as structural demand drivers—including central bank purchasing, concerns over fiscal deficits, and geopolitical tensions—persist.