CGS has released a research report predicting that Brent crude oil prices will fluctuate widely in November, with an expected trading range of $60-67 per barrel. The cost structure of the industry is likely to remain relatively stable month-on-month, with a focus on optimizing supply-demand dynamics.

Recently, the draft proposal for the "15th Five-Year Plan" was released, emphasizing the need to address "internal competition" and foster emerging industries. Investment opportunities are recommended in sectors such as PTA, polyester filament, and robotics materials.

Key insights from CGS include:

**October Oil Price Trends** In October, the average monthly prices for Brent and WTI crude were $64.0 and $60.0 per barrel, respectively, down 5.4% and 5.5% month-on-month.

**Supply-Side Factors** On November 2, eight OPEC+ member countries agreed to increase December oil production by 137,000 barrels per day, marking the eighth consecutive month of production hikes. This adjustment has raised expectations for near-term global crude supply. However, seasonal factors will lead OPEC+ to pause production increases from January to March 2026.

Additionally, on October 22, the U.S. government imposed sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, while urging an immediate ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. This has heightened concerns about potential disruptions to Russian oil exports.

**Demand-Side Factors** Crude oil consumption remains in a seasonal lull, with attention turning to heating oil demand. As of October 24, U.S. refinery utilization stood at 86.6%, down 4.8 percentage points from the end of September. Seasonal trends suggest refinery activity may rebound as winter heating demand rises.

**Inventory Levels** U.S. commercial crude inventories totaled 415.97 million barrels as of October 24, a decline of 580,000 barrels from September.

CGS notes that while near-term supply-demand pressures persist, OPEC+'s decision to pause long-term production hikes has bolstered market confidence. Brent crude prices are expected to fluctuate between $60-67 per barrel in November. Investors are advised to monitor geopolitical developments, OPEC+ production policies, and global trade disputes.

**China's Oil and Gas Demand (Jan-Sept)** - Crude oil apparent consumption rose 1.9% year-on-year to 582 million tons, with imports up 2.6% and domestic output increasing 1.7%. - Natural gas apparent consumption grew 0.9% year-on-year to 318.2 billion cubic meters, with imports declining 5.9%. - Refined oil apparent consumption fell 2.2% year-on-year to 281 million tons, with gasoline and diesel demand down 4.8% and 1.3%, respectively.

**Risk Factors** 1. Escalation of international trade conflicts. 2. Sharp increases in raw material prices. 3. Weaker-than-expected downstream demand. 4. Declining profitability of core products. 5. Delays in project completion.