Everbright Securities has released a research report stating that PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH, 00857) demonstrated the full advantage of its integrated industrial chain in the first three quarters, with profits reaching a new record high, in line with expectations.
The brokerage maintained its earnings forecasts for the company, projecting net profit attributable to shareholders of 190.2 billion yuan, 195.9 billion yuan, and 201.8 billion yuan for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, corresponding to earnings per share of 1.04 yuan, 1.07 yuan, and 1.10 yuan. It expressed optimism about the company's potential for reserve growth and production increases as well as the long-term growth of its natural gas business, maintaining a Buy rating on both the A-share and H-share of the company.
According to the report, PetroChina released its third-quarter report for 2026. In the first three quarters of 2026, the company achieved operating revenue of 2,321.1 billion yuan, up 7.0% year-on-year on a retrospectively adjusted basis, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 155.8 billion yuan, up 21.9% year-on-year. In the third quarter alone, the company recorded operating revenue of 793.6 billion yuan, up 10.4% year-on-year and 0.3% quarter-on-quarter, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 51.8 billion yuan, up 21.6% year-on-year but down 6.8% quarter-on-quarter.
Efficient Operation of Oil and Gas Industrial Chains Drives Record Performance
In the first three quarters of 2026, affected by geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, international oil prices fluctuated upward, with the average Brent crude price reaching US$88.78 per barrel, up 26.9% year-on-year. Domestic new energy substitution accelerated, reducing demand in the refined oil market, while domestic natural gas consumption declined slightly.
The company actively responded to changes in domestic and international macroeconomic, geopolitical, and energy and chemical market conditions, including turbulence in the Middle East geopolitical situation, wide fluctuations in international oil prices, new energy substitution, and declining refined oil demand. It effectively organized production and operations, further intensified oil and gas exploration and development, diversified resource procurement, ensured high-load operation of refining and chemical units, and safeguarded the safety of the industrial chain and supply chain as well as stable market supply. As a result, performance in the first three quarters reached a new historical high.
In the first three quarters, the company achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of 155.8 billion yuan, up 21.9% year-on-year, and operating cash flow of 373.5 billion yuan, up 8.8% year-on-year. In the first three quarters of 2026, the company's upstream business benefited from rising crude oil sales prices, achieving operating profit of 152 billion yuan, up 19.7% year-on-year. Driven by increased natural gas sales volumes and structural optimization on both the resource and customer sides, the company's natural gas sales business achieved operating profit of 33.3 billion yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year. Thanks to higher gross margins on refining and chemical products, the company's refining business achieved operating profit of 18 billion yuan, up 24.7% year-on-year, the chemicals business achieved operating profit of 5.1 billion yuan, up 185.7% year-on-year, and the marketing business achieved operating profit of 14.5 billion yuan, up 24.7% year-on-year.
Segment Review: Upstream Focuses on Reserve Growth and Production, Refining Transformation Advances
In the first three quarters of 2026, the company's oil and gas and new energy segment achieved operating profit of 152 billion yuan, up 19.7% year-on-year. In the third quarter alone, operating profit was 51.6 billion yuan, up 29.4% year-on-year but down 13.2% quarter-on-quarter, mainly due to higher crude oil prices, increased natural gas output, and the company's efforts to control oil and gas production costs.
In the first three quarters of 2026, the company's average realized crude oil price was US$77.65 per barrel, up 18.5% year-on-year, while the average natural gas sales price was 2.21 yuan per cubic meter, up 1.7% year-on-year excluding exchange rate effects. The company's domestic operations intensified exploration and development, continuously advancing oil and gas reserve growth and production increases. Overseas operations actively responded to geopolitical changes, striving to ensure safe and stable production, coordinating the operation of existing projects and the development of new projects, and continuously optimizing the asset portfolio. The new energy business advanced project approvals and construction in a coordinated manner, strengthening integration with oil and gas operations.
In the first three quarters of 2026, the company's oil and gas equivalent output was 1,376.8 million barrels of oil equivalent, roughly flat year-on-year. Domestic crude oil output was 590.4 million barrels, down 0.2% year-on-year, domestic natural gas output was 111.82 billion cubic meters, up 2.3% year-on-year, and domestic oil and gas equivalent output was 1,248.3 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 1.1% year-on-year.
In the first three quarters, the company's new energy business accelerated, with wind and solar power generation reaching 7.84 billion kilowatt-hours, up 35.5% year-on-year. Geothermal heating and cooling area in operation and maintenance exceeded 80 million square meters. The company carried out zero-carbon demonstration factory construction and fully promoted carbon dioxide capture, utilization, and storage.
Natural Gas Sales Achieve Volume and Efficiency Gains, Operating Profit Rises Steadily
In the first three quarters of 2026, the company's natural gas sales business achieved operating profit of 33.3 billion yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year. In the third quarter alone, operating profit was 9.2 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year but up 76.4% quarter-on-quarter.
The company continued to strengthen marketing efforts, striving to increase natural gas sales, continuously expanding domestic market share and the proportion of high-end and high-efficiency market sales. It coordinated and optimized the gas source structure, optimized the injection and production rhythm of gas storage facilities, effectively controlled comprehensive procurement costs, and strived to improve sales efficiency. It actively expanded the terminal sales network, with the terminal market scale growing steadily.
In the first three quarters of 2026, the company sold 231.302 billion cubic meters of natural gas, up 3.0% year-on-year, of which domestic natural gas sales were 178.735 billion cubic meters, up 1.0% year-on-year.
Refining and Chemicals Ensure Stable Unit Operation, Transformation Projects Advance
In the first three quarters of 2026, the company's refining, chemicals, and new materials segment achieved operating profit of 23.1 billion yuan, up 42.4% year-on-year. The refining business achieved operating profit of 18 billion yuan, up 24.7% year-on-year, mainly due to higher unit gross margins on refined products. The chemicals business achieved operating profit of 5.1 billion yuan, up 185.7% year-on-year, mainly due to increased sales volumes and higher unit gross margins of chemical products.
In the third quarter of 2026 alone, the company's refining business achieved operating profit of 6.3 billion yuan, up 31.4% year-on-year and up 38.1% quarter-on-quarter, while the chemicals business achieved operating profit of 2.3 billion yuan, up 485.6% year-on-year and up 37.3% quarter-on-quarter.
The company strengthened production and operation organization to ensure safe, stable, long-cycle, and high-load operation of refining and chemical units. It adhered to reducing oil output while increasing chemicals and specialty products, continuously optimizing the product structure to effectively meet market demand. It continued to advance refining and chemical transformation and upgrading, actively developing fine chemicals, high-end new materials, and bio-manufacturing businesses. The Tarim 1.2 million tons per year Phase II ethylene and supporting green low-carbon demonstration project of Dushanzi Petrochemical Company was fully put into commercial operation, and the high-end polyolefin new materials project of Blue Ocean New Materials Company achieved mechanical completion.
Refined Oil Market Share Rises, Non-Oil Business Vigorously Developed
In the first three quarters of 2026, the company's marketing business achieved operating profit of 14.5 billion yuan, up 24.7% year-on-year, mainly due to increased profits from international trade business. In the third quarter alone, operating profit was 3.1 billion yuan, down 22.8% year-on-year and down 35.9% quarter-on-quarter.
The company actively responded to market conditions, continuously strengthened marketing, enhanced lean marketing in segmented markets, and strived to promote refined oil sales. It continued to vigorously develop LNG terminal refueling, battery charging and swapping, and non-oil businesses, with non-oil business profits maintaining growth.
As of the end of September 2026, the company had 21,955 gas stations, down 0.8% from the end of 2025, of which 20,436 were self-operated. There were 19,993 convenience stores, up 0.9% from the end of 2025. In the first three quarters of 2026, the company sold a total of 114.656 million tons of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel, down 5.1% year-on-year. Domestic sales of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel were 84.520 million tons, down 5.7% year-on-year.
Full Industrial Chain Advantage Helps Navigate Cycles, Energy Security Strategic Value Highlighted
Recently, the military conflict between the United States and Iran in the Middle East has temporarily eased, but the U.S. policy stance toward Iran after the midterm elections remains unclear, and conflicts between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi armed group have intensified. Geopolitical risks are keeping oil prices oscillating at high levels. Global refined oil supply is tightening, and inventory tightness is expected to persist into the first half of 2027.
Currently, China's external dependence on oil and natural gas remains relatively high, and geopolitical conflicts threaten the security of the global energy supply chain. The task of ensuring oil and gas security in China remains arduous. As important state-owned energy enterprises, the "three barrels of oil" are expected to continue intensifying oil and gas exploration and development and reserve growth and production increases, consolidating the foundation of domestic output, while deeply participating in global energy governance and improving the construction of energy transportation corridors. The strategic value of energy supply security is increasingly prominent.
The company will continue to strengthen reserve growth and production increases, with oil and gas equivalent output planned to grow 0.6% in 2026. It will accelerate the transformation of midstream and downstream refining and chemical businesses, with the refining segment promoting low-cost "oil-to-chemicals" conversion and high-value "oil-to-specialty" conversion. The marketing segment will actively transform into a comprehensive energy service provider covering oil, gas, hydrogen, electricity, and services. The chemicals business will steadily increase the proportion of high-value-added products.
The company will continue to adhere to long-termism, proactively respond to changes in the macroeconomic environment and market conditions, fully leverage its advantages, continuously enhance its value creation capability, and is expected to achieve long-term growth that transcends oil price cycles.
Risk warnings include downside risks in crude oil and natural gas prices, and downside risks in refining and chemical industry sentiment.