The summer of 2026 is poised to be etched into many people's memories. Starting in June, Shenyang experienced consecutive days with temperatures exceeding 35°C, prompting multiple high-temperature alerts from the Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Observatory. The situation was even more severe in the south, where temperatures in many regions surpassed 40°C, leading the Central Meteorological Observatory to issue continuous red alerts. In Europe, June 2026 was confirmed as the hottest June on record, with Germany setting a new national high of 41.7°C; in the United States, the central and eastern regions suffered from relentless, dangerous heatwaves.

"Driven by climate change and global warming, heatwaves that used to occur once every two or three decades are now happening almost every year," World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus wrote on social media. UN Secretary-General António Guterres called extreme heat a "silent killer," noting that many heat-related deaths go uncounted, with actual figures far exceeding existing records. So why has this summer been so hot? The answer points to a "marine heat surge" unfolding deep in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific.

Data Speaks: This Summer's Heat Is Well Documented

Global statistics paint a stark picture. The World Meteorological Organization has confirmed that 2025 was among the three hottest years on record, with global average surface temperatures 1.44°C above pre-industrial levels. From January to March 2026, national average temperatures were 1.4°C higher than the same period in normal years, with most of the country experiencing increases of 1 to 2°C. By summer, nearly all land areas globally were warmer than their long-term averages.

The Copernicus Climate Change Service, operated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, reported that June 2026 was the hottest June on record for Western Europe and the second hottest globally, trailing only 2024. Western Europe endured sustained heatwaves, with France and Spain experiencing large-scale wildfires due to drought.

China's Data: Earlier Onset, Wider Reach, Longer Duration

According to the China Meteorological Administration, the national average annual temperature in 2025 was 10.9°C, tying 2024 for the highest on record, with the most high-temperature days ever logged. Between April 1 and May 7, 2026, the national average temperature reached 13.3°C, 1.1°C above the normal level for that period, marking the fifth highest for that timeframe since 1961.

Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the National Climate Center, stated that this summer's average temperatures nationwide will be above normal, with more frequent high-temperature days than usual, particularly in the south and Xinjiang. While experts caution this is not a "runaway catastrophic summer," the undeniable reality is that heatwaves are now broader in scope, earlier in timing, and longer in duration—fundamentally different from the summers of years past.

The Driving Force: How El Niño 'Heats Up' the Globe

The most direct catalyst behind this global heat is the developing El Niño event. El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon marked by anomalously warm sea surface temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. It reshuffles heat and precipitation worldwide by altering atmospheric circulation—making some regions hotter and drier while deluging others with torrential rain.

Latest Monitoring: Strong El Niño Threshold Breached

On August 4, the National Climate Center released its latest assessment: the equatorial central and eastern Pacific met the criteria for entering an El Niño state in May, with continued warming through June. Starting from the second pentad of July (July 6-10), the key region's sea surface temperature index has consistently exceeded 2°C, officially entering the strong El Niño monitoring threshold. Data illustrates the speed of this warming: the Niño3.4 index rose from 0.47°C in April to 0.94°C in May, and reached 1.60°C by June—a sharp 0.64°C jump from May, signaling clear acceleration. The China Meteorological Administration's August press briefing noted that "the current warming rate has surpassed that of the 1997/1998 super event during the same period."

Global Consensus: A Rare and 'Extreme' Event

The World Meteorological Organization's latest bulletin on July 31 indicates that El Niño will continue to strengthen steadily from August to October, becoming a strong event. Multi-model ensemble forecasts from major global prediction centers project seasonal average sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2.9°C in key monitoring regions. Data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in July pegs the probability of a "very strong" El Niño developing this autumn and winter at 81%, with a 97% chance the event persists into early 2027.

Tim Stockdale, an expert at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, was most direct: "This year's El Niño is unlike anything in the past 30-plus years of observations, and forecast models suggest this will be an 'extreme' event. Never have I seen such strong and unanimous predictions across models for an El Niño; barring surprises, it will break records."

Triple Ocean Warming: A Rare 'Trio'

Making this summer exceptionally hot is not just El Niño's influence—two additional factors are at play. The WMO's July 31 bulletin highlighted a concerning signal: a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is expected to form concurrently. This means above-average sea surface temperatures in the western Indian Ocean and below-average in the east—a pattern that will amplify regional climate impacts when combined with El Niño. Meanwhile, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are also projected to stay above average. Simultaneous abnormal warming across all three oceans is exceptionally rare in historical observations. This "trio" effect will generate more complex chains of extreme weather events globally through atmospheric teleconnections. As the National Climate Center notes: "Strong El Niño events act as a global climate 'amplifier,' altering the probability of regional heatwaves, droughts, and heavy precipitation risks."

Focus on the Northeast: What Shenyang Experienced

El Niño's impact on China's climate exhibits distinct phase-specific characteristics. This summer, the northeastern region has been under the influence of El Niño's strengthening phase. According to the Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Bureau, average temperatures from June to July were above normal, with Shenyang issuing multiple high-temperature alerts. From late July to early August, Shenyang endured consecutive days of sultry weather with maximum temperatures exceeding 33°C, making it feel noticeably hotter than typical years. The provincial meteorological observatory repeatedly issued high-temperature forecasts, advising residents to limit outdoor activities.

At the same time, precipitation in northern China has generally increased this summer due to El Niño's influence. Liaoning experienced heavy rainfall in multiple locations, with Shenyang facing short-duration intense downpours and urban waterlogging. This alternating pattern of "heat plus heavy rain" is a common feature of strong El Niño years. The National Climate Center's assessment indicates that precipitation will be above normal in northern China, the northeast, and the Jiangnan region during El Niño development summers. For Shenyang, this means preparing not only for high temperatures but also for potential phased flooding.

Will Next Year Be Hotter? Experts Assess 2027 Risks

Perhaps the most pressing question is: this summer is already hot enough—what about next year? The answer is that summer 2027 may demand even greater vigilance. The National Climate Center explicitly states: "The impact of strong El Niño events on the global climate often peaks the following year. This is because the ocean's influence on the atmosphere lags, typically manifesting fully six months to a year after the event reaches its peak."

Based on this, experts highlight three critical time windows to watch:

August–October 2026 (current phase): El Niño's accelerated strengthening, with above-normal precipitation across northern China, the northeast, and the Jiangnan region.

Autumn–Winter 2026: the peak window, with significantly increased precipitation in the south and nationwide warm winter characteristics.

Summer 2027: the "delayed release" danger period—the probability of a global hottest year surges, the Yangtze River basin faces extreme flood risks, and the north must prepare for "ultra-long duration" heatwaves.

Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Berkeley Earth, predicts: "So far, 2027 is highly likely to be the hottest year on record globally." He adds: "In 1998, there was an extremely strong El Niño, making it a very hot year. But if the same event occurred today, it would actually be a relatively cool year—highlighting just how much human influence has altered the climate." Li Kexin, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences' Institute of Atmospheric Physics, assesses the domestic situation: "If El Niño materializes as expected in the second half of this year, summer 2027—particularly in northern China—may require advance psychological and material preparation for 'ultra-long duration' heatwaves."

The Global Warming Backdrop: Every El Niño 'Steps Up'

Understanding this summer's heat requires looking beyond El Niño alone. The broader context is that the global temperature baseline has risen overall. The WMO has confirmed that the past 11 years (2015–2025) were the hottest 11 on record. Analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates that due to high greenhouse gas concentrations, the climate system cannot promptly release all the heat generated by El Niño. This means that after each El Niño event, the global baseline temperature starts from a higher point—not returning to "baseline" but "stepping up."

The WMO's "Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update" projects that global average temperatures from 2026 to 2030 will likely remain at historic highs, ranging from 1.3°C to 1.9°C above the 1850–1900 climate baseline. It is also likely that at least one new global warmest year will occur during this period. This implies that even if 2027 breaks the heat record, it may not hold that title for long.

Rational Response: Extreme Weather Is the New Normal

Amid the relentless heat and climate warnings, Chen Lijuan, chief expert at the National Climate Center, advises that while some social media discussions about "hottest year" may be exaggerated, it is crucial to acknowledge that frequent extreme weather has become the new norm. The summer of 2026's heat is not an isolated event but a predictable "peak point" on the broader trend of global warming. Experts from Tsinghua University's Department of Earth System Sciences point out that scenarios like 2026–2027, where a strong El Niño compounds global warming in a "double whammy," merit thorough assessment of impacts on regional economies and societies.

For ordinary citizens, experts recommend: stay updated on short-term forecasts and alerts, stagger outdoor activities during peak heat hours, and prioritize sun protection and hydration; vulnerable groups such as the elderly, children, and those with chronic conditions should avoid midday outdoor exposure. For government bodies, northern regions need to prepare in advance for "ultra-long duration" heatwaves, enhance power supply reliability and public health contingency plans, and deploy flood prevention and preparedness measures targeting high flood risks in the Yangtze River basin for 2027. The National Climate Center is conducting rolling forecasts and will continue releasing the latest results to the public.

As WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo puts it—"Countries need to prepare for an El Niño event that could reach a high intensity, as this will be a natural experiment never before conducted on such a warm planet."