Weaker demand forecasts and an unexpected surge in U.S. crude inventories have led to a pullback in international oil prices after consecutive gains, with expectations of continued high-level, wide-ranging volatility in the near term.

Following a period of robust upward momentum, international oil prices retreated on August 13. During intraday trading on August 13, WTI crude fell about 1.6% to $81.9 per barrel, while Brent crude dipped to a low of $87.6 per barrel, pressured by lowered demand projections and a surprise buildup in U.S. stockpiles. Since July, Brent crude futures have posted gains for four consecutive weeks, accumulating a rise of roughly 26% and hitting a peak of $95 per barrel. Year-to-date, WTI crude futures have climbed 42%. However, in the first week of August, both Brent and WTI futures declined, with weekly losses of approximately 9% and 10%, respectively. Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked. Analyst Yan Lili from Newhuo Futures noted that global crude inventories have significantly decreased compared to February, and refined product stocks are generally at low levels. She anticipates crude prices will trade in a range-bound pattern in the short term, with potential for further upside if U.S.-Iran tensions escalate again.

The stalemate over Strait navigation keeps oil prices elevated. On the macro front, the Strait of Hormuz remains the central focus for crude markets. According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Donald Trump stated on August 10 that the U.S. has completed mine-clearing operations across the entire Strait of Hormuz and now holds "100%" control over this critical waterway. Analysts widely expect oil prices to maintain a high-level, wide-ranging fluctuation pattern. On one hand, news related to U.S.-Iran talks could trigger daily price spikes or drops, with geopolitical risk shifting from a persistent price driver to an amplifier of short-term volatility. Du Bingqin, director of energy chemical research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, said that the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remained low over the past week. According to the institute's data, oil exports through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait averaged about 8.9 million barrels per day over the last 30 days, but flows had dropped to 7.2 million barrels per day by the latest week. Current signals of de-escalation are insufficient to fully eliminate geopolitical risks. Nanhua Futures believes that both sides in the negotiations hold significant differences on issues like nuclear programs and Strait rights, making talks more challenging and potentially prolonging the bargaining period. Goldman Sachs analyzed that the market has largely priced in expectations of a recovery in Middle East supply and Strait flows, but low global inventories, ongoing conflict impacts, and the possibility that the Strait cannot be fully or consistently reopened leave oil risks balanced with a slight upside bias. Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude at around $80 per barrel by end-2026 and sees potential support near $70 to $75 per barrel during the initial phase of supply recovery.

Inventory builds and downgraded demand forecasts contrast with supply tightness. In contrast to supply constraints, demand projections have been broadly lowered. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) released its monthly report on August 12, cutting its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, down from a previous estimate of 780,000 barrels per day—the fourth consecutive reduction. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also published its latest monthly oil report on August 12, indicating that global oil consumption continues to be restrained by the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and high fuel prices. The IEA now expects global oil demand to decrease by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, a drop 510,000 barrels per day larger than its previous forecast, with demand projected to rise by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2027. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data for the week ending August 7 showed an unexpected increase of 17.4 million barrels in U.S. commercial crude inventories, reaching 424.4 million barrels—the largest single-week gain since January 2023. This figure far exceeded market expectations of a 1.4 million barrel draw, becoming a key factor weighing on oil prices that day.

For Chinese consumers, the refined oil price adjustment window will reopen at 24:00 on August 14 (midnight this Saturday). According to predictions from ZCZX (Zhuochuang Information), due to fluctuating international crude prices during the period, domestic refined oil prices are expected to decline by about 0.15 yuan per liter, marking the fifth reduction this year. For a 70-liter fuel tank, private car owners would save roughly 11 yuan per fill-up. ZCZX analyzed that the negative change rate for domestic crude oil, which opened in negative territory during this pricing cycle (from 24:00 July 31 to 24:00 August 14), has continued to deepen. Although geopolitical tensions in the Middle East tightened from the fourth working day of the cycle, driving international crude prices higher and narrowing the scope for retail price cuts, analysts judge that the divergence between falling consumption and constrained supply points to continued sharp volatility in the near term. If the Strait of Hormuz stalemate persists, the market will face a complex scenario of shrinking demand alongside supply shortages. Conversely, a breakthrough in talks could rapidly alleviate the geopolitical risk premium. Amid the interplay of multiple bullish and bearish factors, international oil prices are expected to maintain a high-level, wide-ranging fluctuation pattern in the short term.