Abstract

Carlyle Group LP will report Q4 results on February 06, 2026, Pre-Market; this preview compiles the latest quarter’s results, segment trends, company guidance, and sell-side expectations from October 21, 2025, to January 30, 2026.

Market Forecast

Consensus indicates Carlyle Group LP’s current-quarter revenue is projected at USD 1.05 billion, up 2.82% year over year, with estimated EPS at 1.01 and EBIT at USD 0.43 billion; year-over-year estimates imply modest EPS growth of 5.24% and a slight EBIT contraction of 1.89%. The company’s margin outlook embedded in consensus implies continued resilience in fee-related earnings, though net margin may fluctuate with investment income marks; adjusted EPS is forecast at 1.01 with a year-over-year increase of 5.24%. The firm’s main business is management fees from its investment funds, with fee-earning revenue supported by stable base fees and contribution from performance fees where realizations occur. The most promising segment is fund management fees, estimated at USD 0.58 billion last quarter with steady momentum from new commitments and deployment, while investment income remained volatile.

Last Quarter Review

Carlyle Group LP’s previous quarter posted revenue of USD 0.78 billion, gross profit margin of 358.44%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 0.90 million with a net profit margin of 0.72%, and adjusted EPS of 0.96; year over year, revenue declined 12.57% while adjusted EPS increased 1.05%. A key highlight was the strength of fee-based revenues relative to volatile investment income, which cushioned the top line despite weak realized performance fees. Within the main business, fund management fees contributed USD 0.58 billion, while “investment income” was negative USD 0.52 billion, underscoring the swing nature of marks across strategies.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main fee-related earnings and management fees

Fee-related revenues and earnings remain the cornerstone for Carlyle Group LP this quarter. With consensus revenue at USD 1.05 billion and EPS at 1.01, expectations implicitly call for stable to moderate growth in base management fees as new funds scale, fee-paying AUM expands, and deployment milestones transition strategies into fee-paying status. The last quarter’s USD 0.58 billion in fund management fees demonstrates the recurring nature of the revenue base, and a similar or slightly higher run-rate would be consistent with the top-line projection. The quality of earnings will depend on incremental operating leverage from fixed-cost platforms; should fundraising traction continue in flagship buyout, real estate, and credit strategies, fee margins could stay firm even if realizations are light. Watch for commentary on redemption dynamics in liquid credit and pacing of commitments in private credit vehicles, as these influence near-term fee-bearing AUM and, by extension, revenue sustainability.

Performance fees and investment income

Performance-related items remain the largest swing factor for quarterly earnings. Last quarter’s negative USD 0.52 billion from investment income illustrates how unrealized marks and limited realizations can compress reported profitability even when fee revenue holds up. For the current quarter, consensus EBIT decline of 1.89% year over year despite EPS growth suggests the market anticipates a more normalized performance-fee environment without a material rebound in realizations. If public markets held stable through the period and monetization windows improved selectively—particularly in sponsor-to-sponsor deals and private credit distributions—there could be upside to net margin. Conversely, any spread volatility or sector-specific mark-to-market pressure in technology or healthcare holdings would weigh on performance fees and investment income. The cadence of exits, distribution-in-specie decisions, and fair-value marks across flagship funds will be key to EPS variability.

Stock-price drivers: AUM growth, fundraising pace, and credit deployment

Equity performance for Carlyle Group LP this quarter will be most sensitive to visibility on fee-bearing AUM growth and the forward fundraising calendar. Management commentary on flagship buyout vintages and the scaling of opportunistic credit and direct lending strategies will guide expectations for 2026 fee growth. Within credit, accelerating deployment at attractive spreads can offset slower equity realizations, supporting fee-related earnings consistency. Another driver is cost discipline: signs of operating leverage improvement—keeping compensation and G&A growth below fee revenue growth—can bolster confidence in sustained EPS delivery. Lastly, any update on capital return policy, including distribution of realized performance fees and share repurchases, can influence the multiple investors are willing to ascribe to the fee stream, especially if market marks remain mixed.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent previews, a majority of analysts lean positive, expecting fee-related earnings to remain resilient and for the company to maintain EPS near consensus despite choppy investment income. Several well-followed institutions emphasize that stable management-fee growth and early signs of a healthier exit market could underpin modest margin improvement. The bullish camp highlights the scale benefits of the platform and the potential for private credit to provide counter-cyclical earnings support in the near term, while cautioning that performance fees may remain uneven quarter to quarter.