On February 9, the global energy market entered a phase of consolidation following a period of irrational surges, driven by shifts in core geopolitical dynamics. Recent U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in Oman have significantly dampened bullish sentiment for crude oil, with ICE Brent retreating to around $67 per barrel and posting a weekly decline exceeding 5%. ZFX Shanhai Securities indicated that due to a lack of clarity regarding the meeting's agenda and initial outcomes, the market is currently in a "news vacuum." Any policy-related developments, particularly remarks from U.S. leaders on social media platforms, could trigger a new wave of price volatility next week.

Structural changes on the supply side, compounded by policy maneuvers from multiple nations, have further complicated the oil price trajectory. ZFX Shanhai Securities noted that the European Union's proposed 20th round of sanctions against Russian oil exports, including a comprehensive ban on maritime services, coupled with Saudi Aramco's unexpected reduction of March official selling prices for Asian cargoes by $0.30 to $0.40 per barrel, have collectively exerted downward pressure on the market. In contrast, domestic actions in the United States signal long-term production increases. Data shows that the U.S. Bureau of Land Management is scheduled to restart lease auctions for Alaska's National Petroleum Reserve on March 9, releasing nearly 5.5 million acres of oil and gas leasing land—three times the currently leased area in the region—highlighting the ongoing push for energy self-sufficiency.

Regional supply-demand gaps and inventory fluctuations are also disrupting short-term pricing. Influenced by Winter Storm Finn, U.S. distillate inventories plummeted by 5.55 million barrels last week, the largest weekly drop since 2021, pushing stock levels below the five-year average. Simultaneously, Europe's LNG imports surged to a record 13.7 million tons in January due to heightened demand from severe cold weather. Such extreme seasonal demand, alongside policy-driven shifts in trade flows, such as India resuming purchases of Venezuelan crude, is continuously reshaping the global energy landscape.

Looking ahead, although the International Energy Agency forecasts that clean energy will account for 50% of the mix by 2030, fossil fuel pricing power remains heavily constrained by macro policies and geopolitical premiums during this transition period. Until the outcome of the U.S.-Iran negotiations becomes clear, volatility in ICE Brent is expected to increase significantly within the $65 to $70 range. ZFX Shanhai Securities advises investors to remain cautious of "whipsaw" risks stemming from ambiguous political signals and recommends close attention to the final implementation of the EU's new sanctions package in late February and its substantive impact on energy supply chains in regions like Belgium and Central Europe.