Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co., Ltd. released a research report stating that the photovoltaic industry is actively pushing for anti-involution. The sector plans to clear excess capacity through polysilicon stockpiling, but this faces challenges due to the involvement of numerous companies and the need for substantial financial support. Technological iteration presents a more feasible solution, as the industry has already undergone two major technological upgrades. Perovskite, with its significantly higher efficiency compared to existing crystalline silicon technology, could accelerate the phase-out of outdated capacity once mass-produced, helping the industry recover from cyclical lows. Key insights from Shenwan Hongyuan include:
**Efficiency Gains and Stability as Critical Factors** Since its emergence in 2009, perovskite's conversion efficiency has risen from 3.8% to over 26%. GCL TECH has achieved 19.04% efficiency on 1m*2m modules, while tandem cells have reached nearly 30% in small sizes, far surpassing crystalline silicon. LONGi's perovskite-silicon tandem cells hit 33%, and JinkoSolar's TOPCon/perovskite lab efficiency stands at 34.22%.
**Stability Breakthroughs** High lab efficiency must be matched with sufficient stability for commercialization. Recent progress includes the Chinese Academy of Sciences developing perovskite solar cells with over 27% efficiency and improved durability.
**GW-Scale Production Lines Accelerate Commercialization** By 2025, GW-level production lines from companies like GCL TECH and others are set to launch, with more capacity planned for 2026. On October 29, 2025, GCL TECH's first full-size perovskite module (2400mm×1150mm) rolled off its GW production line, signaling faster commercialization through balanced efficiency and stability.
**Policy Support for Photovoltaic Innovation** On October 28, 2025, state media highlighted perovskite's growth potential. On November 11, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued guidelines emphasizing perovskite and tandem solar cells in advanced photovoltaic technologies, alongside solid-state and sodium-ion batteries. Perovskite's efficiency edge positions it as a key driver in the industry's anti-involution efforts.
**Investment Recommendations** 1) **Perovskite Equipment**: DR Laser (300776.SZ), Jingsheng WeiChuang (300724.SZ), Jingshan Light Machinery (000821.SZ), Xizi Clean Energy (002534.SZ), Allred (688378.SH), Mannas Technology (301325.SZ), Winaico (688147.SH). 2) **Perovskite Modules**: Hangzhou Kelin (688611.SH), Aolian Electronics (300585.SZ), GCL TECH (03800). 3) **TCO Glass**: Yaopi Glass (600819.SH), Jinjing Technology (600586.SH). 4) **Perovskite Films**: FST (603806.SH), Haiyou New Materials (688680.SH), Saiwu Technology (603212.SH).
**Risks**: Slower-than-expected tech advancements, delayed mass production, or insufficient cost reductions.