On February 25th, ATFX noted that as a reformist, former President Trump is expected to introduce various policies surpassing market expectations during his four-year tenure. Policies such as the 2025 reciprocal tariffs and the removal of Maduro at the beginning of 2026 have boosted market risk aversion. It is anticipated that Trump will continue to take significant actions throughout the remainder of 2026. Currently, a potential strike on Iran appears highly likely to become the next market focus.
On February 23rd, US and Iranian negotiators announced a meeting scheduled for Thursday in Geneva, Switzerland. The probability of substantial progress from this meeting is very low, as recent US actions suggest an almost unavoidable conflict. On the same day, the USS Gerald R. Ford, the largest aircraft carrier in the US fleet, arrived at Souda Bay in Crete, Greece. While Crete is located in the Mediterranean, far from the Persian Gulf, the carrier's proximity to Israel enhances its defensive capabilities. Sources indicate that Trump has informed his advisors of plans to launch a strike on Iran in the coming days or months. Overall, the Geneva meeting may represent the calm before the storm.
In terms of market performance, gold's medium-term high stands at $5,597, with a low of $4,402. The latest price, as of the early European session on the 24th, is $5,170, positioning it within this range. The market is currently seeking a new medium-term high, with $5,597 likely acting as a strong resistance level. Given that gold closed with positive gains on both Friday and Monday, there are indications that the consolidation phase may be ending, potentially paving the way for a new bullish trend. If today's trading session concludes with another positive close, the likelihood of breaking above $5,597 will increase significantly.
Regarding economic data, the US non-farm payroll report for January showed impressive results, with 130,000 new jobs added, significantly higher than the previous figure of 48,000, marking the highest level since January 2025. The strengthening US labor market is expected to reduce the Federal Reserve's inclination to cut interest rates. Additionally, the core PCE annual rate for December, released last Friday, came in at 3%, above both prior and expected values, reaching its highest level since May 2024 and indicating a resurgence of inflationary pressures. As inflation data is a key indicator for central bank monetary policy decisions, rising US inflation rates could substantially delay the timing of the Fed's next rate cut.
Since January 28th, the US dollar index has continued to rebound, reaching a阶段性 high of 98.05 last week, though the medium-term trend remains bearish. If strong US economic data leads the Fed to pause its rate-cutting cycle, causing the dollar index to rally further on positive news, gold's upward momentum may face significant headwinds, even with supportive safe-haven sentiment.