At the open, chaos reigned, but within half an hour the logic fell into place.

On Monday, global markets opened with an unusual scene: oil prices "gapped higher" before quickly turning lower, gold "gapped lower" before rapidly reversing upward, U.S. stock futures "gapped higher," and the 10-year Treasury yield edged up before declining. At the opening bell, each market was telling its own story, but as trading progressed, they gradually began telling the same story.

First, oil's price action was highly telling. At the very open, it reflected the weekend risk premium, then was quickly repriced. There was a barrage of weekend news that at first glance looked bullish for oil. Iran reiterated on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen until seven conditions were met. Meanwhile, the conflict in Yemen escalated markedly, with Saudi-backed Yemeni forces launching a full-scale offensive to retake all areas held by the Houthis. Earlier, senior U.S. national security officials had held a secret meeting at Camp David to discuss the next steps in the Iran war and the Saudi-Houthi conflict. The headlines were alarming, but the money did not follow. After the first trade, oil prices did not continue rising; instead, they fell back to fill the gap, which injected confidence into the market.

Second, what matters today is the "second act": whether oil prices and Treasury yields continue to probe lower. Watch whether the morning's "comfortable rally" can survive until the U.S. close. Although today is an ordinary trading day, more and more analysts are starting to discuss whether Treasury yields are nearing a cyclical peak. If both oil prices and Treasury yields fall significantly today, the market will feel that last week's 5.34% may have been a阶段性 climax ("suspected climax"), and some will be the first to bet that Treasury yields have topped out.

Third, the most important event today is at 22:00 Beijing time, when the U.S. September ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released (previous: 55.4; market expectation: 55). On one hand, keep a close eye on the headline figure to see if it triggers strange market swings; on the other hand, watch the three sub-indices: the prices index (the most important one today), the employment index, and new orders. At long last, we have oil prices and Treasury yields falling simultaneously. Now we need to verify whether this is just a temporary breather or a genuine turning point in last week's global bond selloff. If, after tonight's ISM release, oil prices continue to fall and the 10-year yield keeps moving below 5.20% and 5.10%, then the market will begin to suspect that last week's 5.34% 10-year Treasury yield was the cyclical peak of this round of Treasury selling. Today is not an ordinary Monday.

Editor's note: The above content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.