Spot gold faced downward pressure during Monday's Asian session, retreating to around $4,530 per ounce, ending its two-day gaining streak.

The short-term pullback reflects profit-taking by bulls after recent geopolitical risk premiums were realized.

A deeper, more persistent headwind comes from the market's repricing of interest rate expectations, with investors betting the Federal Reserve will maintain higher rates for longer, even pricing in potential future hikes.

Elevated U.S. Treasury real yields and a resilient U.S. dollar have increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, capping its rebound and leading to a consolidative decline.

Over the weekend, Iranian officials stated that diplomatic contacts with the U.S. continue, but no substantive commitments have been made on the nuclear issue.

Parliament Speaker and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf set a clear red line, indicating Tehran would not sign any deal unless it guarantees the legitimate rights of the Iranian people.

This posture of "engagement without compromise" has significantly cooled market expectations for a near-term de-escalation.

Simultaneously, Israel's expanded ground operations in southern Lebanon are pushing a fragile ceasefire towards renewed collapse, reintroducing regional失控 risk as a key variable in asset pricing.

While geopolitical tensions theoretically boost gold's safe-haven appeal, the current market appears constrained by a dual force.

On one side, the risk of conflict spillover supports dip-buying demand.

On the other, the Fed's "higher for longer" interest rate narrative continues to suppress any significant rally potential.

Several Fed officials warned last Friday that if the Middle East situation drives up energy prices and feeds into core inflation, policy could become more cautious or even hawkish.

The market has broadly priced in little near-term easing of restrictive policy.

With bond yields elevated and the dollar index showing strength, the opportunity cost of holding gold remains high.

In this environment, gold has not lost its safe-haven characteristics but struggles to mount a sustained, one-directional rally.

Geopolitical risks prevent a deep decline, while high-rate expectations cap its upside.

For international investors, high-yielding dollar assets remain more attractive than gold, barring two potential scenarios: a clear escalation in the conflict, such as full-scale war or a strait blockade, or a significant deterioration in U.S. economic data forcing a Fed pivot to rate cuts.

Until then, gold is likely to trade within a range, finding a new equilibrium between "safe-haven support" and "interest rate pressure."

From a daily chart perspective, gold's broader long-term uptrend remains intact.

The price trades above key moving averages, suggesting the long-term bullish structure is not broken.

The $4,500 area now serves as crucial support, while the $4,580 to $4,600 zone forms a key resistance band.

A sustained break above $4,600 could pave the way for a test of historical highs, while a drop below $4,500 might trigger a deeper technical correction.

The RSI indicator, though retreating from overbought levels, remains in bullish territory, indicating underlying buying interest persists.

The MACD continues above the zero line, though with narrowing bullish momentum, suggesting the pace of the advance is slowing.

On the 4-hour chart, gold's short-term trend has entered a consolidation phase.

The price faced rejection near $4,560, leading to a pullback, with short-term moving averages beginning to flatten.

The MACD shows a bearish crossover, indicating weakening short-term momentum, while the RSI has retreated towards neutral levels.

A firm recovery above $4,550 could see another test of the $4,580 resistance area.

A break below $4,520 might lead to a further decline towards the $4,500 or even $4,480 support zones.

Overall, the market appears to be awaiting a new fundamental catalyst.