Abstract

Sherwin-Williams will report first-quarter 2026 results on April 28, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes consensus expectations for revenue, gross margin, net profit or margin, and adjusted EPS, and discusses key drivers across Paint Stores Group and Performance Coatings.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the first quarter points to revenue of 5.56 billion US dollars, adjusted EBIT of 0.84 billion US dollars, and adjusted EPS of 2.27, implying year-over-year growth of 2.95%, 7.50%, and 5.06%, respectively. Company-level margin detail in external models implies a stable to modestly wider gross margin versus last year and a net margin that trends slightly higher year over year on operating leverage; management has not issued explicit quarterly guidance on gross margin and net margin for the period, but sell-side forecasting indicates incremental improvement.

Sherwin-Williams’s core business remains concentrated in professional-led architectural paints sold through its Paint Stores Group, with Performance Coatings and Consumer Brands complementing growth; near-term focus is on resilient pro demand and price/mix discipline. The most promising segment appears to be the Paint Stores Group at 3.13 billion US dollars in last quarter revenue, supported by contractor traffic and new store productivity, though year-over-year comparisons will be influenced by pricing normalization.

Last Quarter Review

In the previous quarter, Sherwin-Williams delivered revenue of 5.60 billion US dollars, with a gross profit margin of 48.47%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 0.48 billion US dollars, a net profit margin of 8.52%, and adjusted EPS of 2.23, with year-over-year growth for revenue at 5.64% and adjusted EPS at 6.70%. A notable financial highlight was the continued expansion in operating efficiency that helped deliver an EBIT result ahead of estimates alongside solid top-line performance.

By business, last quarter revenue was led by the Paint Stores Group at 3.13 billion US dollars, followed by Performance Coatings at 1.64 billion US dollars and Consumer Brands at 0.82 billion US dollars; segment growth dynamics were shaped by professional end markets and selective pricing, though detailed year-over-year segment growth was not disclosed in the available dataset.

Current Quarter Outlook

Paint Stores Group

The Paint Stores Group is the key profit engine in the first quarter, driven by professional contractor demand, maintenance and repair activity, and ongoing network productivity. With consensus revenue for the company at 5.56 billion US dollars and EPS at 2.27, incremental gross margin tailwinds from raw-material cost stability and mix should support this segment’s margins. Seasonal patterns typically soften early in the year; however, pro backlogs and institutional projects can mitigate demand volatility, suggesting relatively steady traffic. Price carryover from 2025 and disciplined discounting are likely to sustain average selling prices even as volume normalizes, enabling modest year-over-year EPS growth in line with the 5.06% estimate. The main watch item within this group is volume elasticity as comparisons lap prior pricing actions; any underperformance on volumes could compress operating leverage and temper EPS progression.

Performance Coatings

Performance Coatings can contribute margin resilience through mix and targeted pricing across industrial, OEM, and protective markets. In the prior quarter, the segment accounted for 1.64 billion US dollars, reflecting its role as a diversified earnings contributor. For the first quarter, consensus EBIT growth of 7.50% year over year suggests incremental operating leverage that could come from improved industrial throughput and project activity, although pockets of industrial softness and FX translation may cap upside. The segment’s outlook also depends on the pace of recovery in end-markets like general industrial, automotive refinish, and protective marine coatings; stabilization should support mid-single-digit top-line progression and slight margin accretion. Investors are likely to focus on backlog conversion and order trends as leading indicators for second-quarter performance.

Consumer Brands

Consumer Brands remains smaller in absolute size but provides channel breadth through retail partners and private-label products. Although last quarter revenue of 0.82 billion US dollars underlines its scale, the segment faces a mixed retail environment with more normalized DIY demand versus prior peaks. For this quarter, the priority is maintaining share and profitability through product refreshes and cost discipline, while avoiding excessive promotional activity that could erode margins. Any positive surprise in DIY seasonal demand or replenishment orders could add incremental revenue, but management’s strategy appears geared to steady profitability rather than aggressive volume pursuits. The segment’s performance will also be a signal for broader consumer sentiment within architectural coatings.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Share performance around the print will likely pivot on three factors: volumes versus pricing mix, gross margin trajectory, and commentary about professional demand through the peak painting season. If gross margin expands from last year on raw-material moderation and mix, EPS may track toward or slightly above the 2.27 estimate; conversely, a weaker volume outcome in Paint Stores Group could limit EBIT growth to below the 7.50% forecast. Investors will also scrutinize working capital and cash conversion, as efficient inventory management can support buybacks and capital deployment later in the year. Management’s color on store openings, pro backlog, and any incremental pricing actions will help frame the second-quarter acceleration profile, which is typically seasonally stronger.

Analyst Opinions

Recent previews among institutions tilt cautiously bullish, emphasizing stability in professional demand, incremental gross margin expansion, and manageable raw-material costs. The majority view expects revenue to land near 5.56 billion US dollars and EPS around 2.27, with upside dependent on volume resilience in the Paint Stores Group and healthy order trends in Performance Coatings. Analysts highlight near-term catalysts in backlog conversion and seasonal demand picking up into late spring, while acknowledging risks around DIY normalization and potential industrial softness. The prevailing opinion prioritizes EBITDA discipline and price/mix quality over aggressive top-line acceleration, suggesting a balanced setup with modest positive bias into the release.