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Rebar: The rebar market saw a slight uptick yesterday, with the 2610 contract closing at 3,023 yuan per tonne, up 7 yuan from the previous trading day, a gain of 0.23%, while open interest decreased by 35,400 lots. Spot prices remained broadly stable with little change in trading activity. The Qian'an plain billet price in Tangshan held at 2,950 yuan per tonne, while the Zhongtian rebar price in Hangzhou stayed flat at 3,030 yuan per tonne. National construction material trading volume reached 92,100 tonnes. Investment declines in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing widened further in July, keeping steel demand subdued. At the same time, daily average crude steel and pig iron output fell notably year-on-year and month-on-month, with supply also contracting. The rebar market is characterized by weak supply and demand, though cost support has strengthened. Short-term rebar prices are expected to remain range-bound.

Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract i2609 rebounded slightly, closing at 728.5 yuan per tonne, up 7 yuan from the previous session, a gain of 0.97%, with trading volume of 155,600 lots and open interest down 21,200 lots. Port spot prices rose modestly, with Rizhao 60.8% PB fines up 5 yuan to 685 yuan, and Carajas fines up 11 yuan to 835 yuan. According to Mysteel data, from August 10 to 16, 2026, iron ore inventories at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil totaled 12.767 million tonnes, up 434,000 tonnes week-on-week. While port inventories rebounded slightly, current levels remain slightly below the annual average. However, the previous arrival gap has been largely filled, with arrivals returning to normal and supply pressure increasing. On the demand side, hot metal output rose slightly from low levels, and steel mill profitability improved modestly, but the improvement is limited, with no substantial recovery in end-user demand. Iron ore prices are expected to continue fluctuating in the short term.

Coking Coal: The coking coal market rose yesterday, with the 2609 contract closing at 1,374 yuan per tonne, up 10 yuan, a gain of 0.73%, while open interest declined by 28,346 lots. In the spot market, Jiexiu primary coking coal (A<10.5, S<1.3, G>80) rose 50 yuan to 1,850 yuan per tonne; Ganqimaodu port Mongolian No.5 raw coal rose 19 yuan to 1,290 yuan per tonne; and Mongolian No.3 washed coal rose 90 yuan to 1,431 yuan per tonne. Mine resumption in major production areas remains constrained by safety supervision and underground conditions, keeping supply tight. Mine sales have improved, inventories continue to decline, and some mines are raising prices, with a few showing reluctance to sell. Coke plants' losses per tonne have not yet improved significantly, and with hot metal output rising, some coking plants hold low feedstock inventories, creating phased restocking demand that supports demand for tight, high-quality coal grades. Coking coal prices are expected to fluctuate in the near term.

Coke: The coke market advanced yesterday, with the 2609 contract closing at 1,950 yuan per tonne, up 40 yuan, a gain of 2.09%, while open interest declined by 6,454 lots. In the spot market, Rizhao port quasi-first-grade metallurgical coke rose 20 yuan to 1,700 yuan per tonne. Some coke enterprises have proposed a first-round price increase of 50-55 yuan per tonne, effective from midnight on August 20. Recent sustained increases in coking coal prices have pushed up coke production costs significantly, leaving most coke producers in a loss-making position, dampening production enthusiasm. Some plants have proactively reduced output, leading to a decline in overall coke supply. Steel end-market transactions remain average, and steel mills' profits are weak, though procurement enthusiasm has improved compared to earlier. However, some mills remain cautious and resist higher coke prices. Coke prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.

Manganese Silicon: On Tuesday, manganese silicon futures strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5,898 yuan per tonne, up 1.24% month-on-month, while open interest fell 16,202 lots to 433,500 lots. According to Ganglian data, market prices for 6517 manganese silicon ranged from 5,700 to 5,900 yuan per tonne across regions, with Inner Mongolia and Ningxia prices raised by 50 yuan per tonne from the previous day. The overall black metal complex performed strongly, lifting manganese silicon futures, with manganese ore also following suit, as Tianjin port manganese ore prices rose about 0.2 yuan per dry metric ton unit. From a supply-demand perspective, with spot production profits for manganese silicon improving in most major production areas, weekly output has stabilized and rebounded. As of the week ending August 14, weekly manganese silicon output stood at 160,400 tonnes, up 2.14% week-on-week, with operating rates in Gansu increasing significantly. On the demand side, rebar output fell 3.82% week-on-week last week, and sample steel mills' manganese silicon demand declined 0.23% week-on-week to 114,000 tonnes, marking a third consecutive weekly decline and remaining at low absolute levels. On inventories, stocks at 63 sample manganese silicon enterprises edged down 5,000 tonnes week-on-week to 458,000 tonnes as of August 14, but remain up 299,200 tonnes year-on-year, continuously hitting new highs in recent years. Overall, sentiment in the black metal complex has improved, but the momentum for a fundamental upward push is limited. Manganese silicon prices are expected to remain range-bound in the short term, with attention on market sentiment shifts.

Ferrosilicon: On Tuesday, ferrosilicon futures strengthened, with the main contract closing at 5,974 yuan per tonne, up 0.91% month-on-month, while open interest rose 25,195 lots to 434,000 lots. Aggregate prices for 72-grade ferrosilicon ranged from 5,530 to 5,600 yuan per tonne across regions, largely unchanged from the previous day. The black metal complex performed strongly, lifting ferrosilicon prices. From a fundamental perspective, recent coal price strength has kept semi-coke prices firm, providing cost support. Spot production profits for ferrosilicon have recovered modestly in most major production areas, with some regions expecting production resumption. As of the week ending August 14, weekly ferrosilicon output rose 1.27% to 111,900 tonnes, with operating rates in Gansu and Qinghai increasing slightly week-on-week. On the demand side, steel mill tenders continue, with market focus on delivery. Sample steel mills' ferrosilicon demand fell 0.72% week-on-week to 18,400 tonnes, remaining at low levels for the corresponding period in the past five years. Magnesium ingot output declined, with daily output down 3.09% to 3,039 tonnes. On inventories, as of the week ending August 14, total ferrosilicon warrants plus valid delivery notices stood at 4,559 lots, down 17,217 lots year-on-year. Overall, ferrosilicon supply is rising slightly while demand falls, with no new fundamental drivers. Prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with attention on overall black metal complex trends.

Disclaimer: This report's information is sourced from public data. The company makes no guarantees regarding its accuracy, reliability, or completeness, nor does it guarantee that the information and recommendations contained herein will not change. We strive for objectivity and fairness in the report, but the views, conclusions, and recommendations are for reference only and do not constitute recommendations for specific products, businesses, or operational strategies for related varieties. Investors make their own decisions and bear all risks, which are not attributable to the company or the authors.

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