The share price of Unitree Technology has now halved from its post-listing peak, sending a clear chill through a market that has been eagerly chasing new stock listings. Despite this stark reality check, investor expectations for hefty gains from the upcoming IPO of SuanYuan Technology remain remarkably high.

For hard-tech stocks, the profit from subscribing to an IPO is not a true measure of a company's quality. The intense valuation surge in the initial trading days can prove to be a losing scenario for both the company and the investors involved.

Take the same hard-tech new listing, for instance; investors have had vastly different experiences. Those lucky enough to sell their allotment on the very first day of trading secured extraordinary returns from the Unitree Technology IPO. Conversely, investors who bought shares on that same opening day have instead endured a rapid and painful decline in the stock's value.

In reality, Unitree Technology's fundamentals have not changed drastically in the short term. Yet, as the share price steadily trended downwards after listing, the chorus of skepticism and doubt surrounding the company has grown louder. It is clear that the violent price swings are beginning to cloud investor judgment about the firm's intrinsic worth.

The extreme speculative fervor on the first day of trading for Unitree Technology was ignited by the immense popularity of the embodied intelligence sector and the scarcity of such investment targets. While it is reasonable for newly listed hard-tech firms to command a valuation premium, things will turn when they are pushed to the extreme. If the hype becomes excessive, a correction to fair value is only a matter of time. This is likely the direct cause of the sharp short-term pullback in Unitree Technology's share price.

Unitree Technology is far from alone in this pattern. Excess returns from hard-tech IPOs seem to have become a common expectation. Stocks like Moore Threads and Muxi Co were also seen as highly lucrative lottery tickets. However, this excess return is merely a result of speculative capital flows and sentiment, not a fair reflection of a company's actual value. A high return from an IPO subscription does not mean the company itself is high quality, and a hot sector does not equate to long-term growth value.

On the contrary, excessive IPO returns often correspond with irrational speculation on the first day, which can subsequently lead to a valuation bubble. A stock that peaks on its very first day of trading is a classic lose-lose situation for both investors and the listed company. Investors who chase the stock at its peak face a rapid share price correction as speculative sentiment cools and the market returns to rationality. Their real money is lost as the share price is mired in a continuous decline.

For the listed company itself, the overinflated valuation resulting from excessive early trading is also more detrimental than beneficial. Unrealistically high market expectations raise the bar for the company's future performance. Investors and institutions will evaluate the company against the performance targets implied by the peak valuation. Yet, the hard-tech industry is characterized by high R&D expenditure and long commercialization cycles, making the path to fulfilling profit forecasts highly uncertain. If subsequent performance fails to meet these lofty expectations, it can trigger violent stock price fluctuations, disrupt the company's normal operational pace, and tarnish the objective market assessment of the firm's long-term value.

The recent surge and subsequent crash in Unitree Technology's stock price provides a vivid lesson in risk for the currently overheated hard-tech IPO market. However, this warning has seemingly had a limited effect, as investors still hold the habitual expectation of excessive IPO profits from SuanYuan Technology. The red-hot hard-tech track should not become a breeding ground for blind speculation. There is logic behind the market's enthusiasm for new hard-tech stocks, but the initial IPO gain is a fleeting arbitrage opportunity. In the long run, a stock price must eventually align with the company's underlying fundamentals.