On Monday, March 23, spot gold trended downward, currently trading around $4,291 per ounce with an intraday decline of approximately 4.6%. Although gold prices found some support near $4,300, any meaningful rebound remains distant. Over the past four weeks, gold has accumulated a decline of over 8%, retreating significantly from the recent high above $5,300, indicating market repricing of safe-haven demand coupled with pressure from the high-interest-rate environment.
Risks of spillover from Middle East conflicts are intensifying, keeping crude oil prices elevated. The situation in the Middle East continues to deteriorate, with the U.S. and Iran exchanging threats to strike related energy infrastructure, significantly heightening market tensions. Currently, transportation through the Strait of Hormuz remains obstructed, and Saudi Arabia's announcement of reduced crude oil supplies to Asian buyers in April has further exacerbated supply concerns, sustaining the strong upward trend in international crude oil prices.
Gold experienced a significant decline last week, breaking below the middle Bollinger Band and closing beneath it, forming three consecutive weekly negative closes. This adjustment has evolved from a short-term pullback into a mid-term peak-and-decline pattern. Technically, the weekly lower band near 3,855 is a potential target, and considering the monthly chart, levels around 3,472 are visible. The monthly chart presents the true bull-bear dividing line for gold; if prices stabilize above this level in the future, further increases remain possible.
On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are opening downward, with gold recording three consecutive declines indicating extreme weakness. The morning session saw a break below the previous low of 4,400. Therefore, the short-term strategy is clear: sell on rallies. Caution is advised against long positions until a daily bullish reversal signal appears or prices approach support levels on the weekly or monthly charts.
On the four-hour chart, gold has been in a unilateral downtrend since 5,238. Although there have been intermittent rebounds, prices faced renewed pressure upon touching short-term moving averages and the middle band, displaying a tendency to fall rather than rise. Thus, for short-term trading today, focus on the resistance near the short-term moving average at 4,542 and trade with the downward trend.
For crude oil, the weekly and monthly charts are still in a corrective phase after previous significant fluctuations, offering limited reference value. The focus should be on the daily chart, where prices maintain high-level consolidation. The expected adjustment on Friday did not materialize, and instead, prices rebounded, suggesting that crude oil may continue its震荡上行 trend and potentially initiate a new round of increases.
On the four-hour chart, crude oil has been consolidating for several consecutive trading days, and a breakout from this stalemate is anticipated soon. Therefore, it may be opportune to prepare for long positions in advance. Friday's rebound pushed prices back into the stronger zone between the middle and upper bands, with the structural center of gravity shifting upward. Today, consider watching for buying opportunities near the middle band around 96.8. If prices consolidate and retreat, support near the lower band at 92.5 remains a level to monitor for potential rebounds.