On June 26th, as Bitcoin approached $59,000, CPT Markets observed that market sentiment was being impacted by a dual effect of persistent outflows from spot ETFs and a slowdown in institutional accumulation, leading to a notably more cautious stance among short-term buyers.

In terms of driving factors, CPT Markets believes the strengthening US dollar index has further suppressed the performance of risk assets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin hovering near recent lows has intensified traders' concerns about potential expansion of subsequent volatility.

When capital flows show no improvement and marginal incremental demand is insufficient, prices become more susceptible to being driven by sentiment. A weakening in institutional support does not necessarily imply a breakdown in the long-term thesis, but it can amplify the sensitivity to periodic pullbacks.

The market's focus going forward remains on capital flows and positioning structure. CPT Markets analysis suggests that a sustained recovery in price from the current pattern of testing lows would be more likely only if ETF outflows slow and the US dollar's upward momentum cools.