Market Highlights and Key Data Futures Performance: On October 29, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 87,220 yuan per ton and closed at 88,710 yuan per ton, up 1.99% from the previous trading day. During the night session, the contract opened at 87,220 yuan per ton and closed at 89,130 yuan per ton, rising 0.47% from the afternoon session.

Spot Market: According to SMM data, spot prices for SMM 1# electrolytic copper were quoted at a discount of 130 yuan to a premium of 10 yuan per ton against the November 2025 contract, with an average discount of 60 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day. The spot price range was 87,550–87,980 yuan per ton. Early trading saw Shanghai copper prices retreat from 88,120 yuan to 87,690 yuan per ton, with a monthly spread of C80–C40 yuan per ton and import losses nearing 1,000 yuan. Market sentiment improved slightly as wider discounts attracted traders and downstream buyers. Discounted transactions for standard-grade copper were quickly executed at 130 yuan below parity, while premium-grade copper remained tight.

Key Market Updates: The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking its second rate cut this year. It also announced the end of balance sheet reduction starting December 1, 2025, with maturing Treasury securities and MBS principal payments to be reinvested. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that another December rate cut is "far from certain," citing internal FOMC divisions and potential pauses due to economic data gaps.

On the supply side, First Quantum Minerals reported a 5.7% increase in Q3 copper production at its Sentinel mine to 51,336 tons, driven by improved ore processing efficiency. The company is addressing maintenance issues with its Ball Mill 2 and expects its In-Pit Crusher 2 to commence operations in Q4 2025.

China’s Henan province issued guidelines for greener copper smelting, promoting low-arsenic and low-fluorine materials, bioleaching technology, and advanced smelting processes to reduce emissions.

Demand-wise, PowerChina is participating in the UAE’s RTC solar-storage project, which includes 5.2 GW of PV capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage. The project, set for completion in 2027, will utilize AI and smart grid technologies.

Inventory Data: LME copper inventories fell by 1,400 tons to 135,350 tons, while SHFE inventories dropped by 101 tons to 35,745 tons. Domestic spot copper stocks stood at 184,500 tons, up 2,900 tons from the previous week.

Outlook: Copper prices remain cautiously bullish, with gold-copper ratios potentially narrowing further. However, demand-side fundamentals remain weak above 90,000 yuan per ton, prompting hedging opportunities for producers. The current upward trend in copper prices is expected to persist in the near term.

Risks: Rapid decline in domestic demand, inventory buildup, and overseas liquidity risks.