China’s leading digital platforms are entering a new era—one defined not by product category leadership but by user frequency and integration. In a landscape once dominated by transaction-based competition, players like Alibaba, JD.com, and Meituan are now locked in a broader race: to become the “everyday app” for Chinese consumers.

As outlined in Goldman Sachs’ July 2025 research, this transition is being powered by food delivery and instant commerce—services with the highest user frequency, and therefore, the greatest potential to drive cross-platform engagement and monetization.

Market Size Is Large—But Frequency Is Larger

According to Goldman Sachs, the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for food delivery is projected to reach RMB 2.4 trillion by 2030, while instant commerce will grow to RMB 1.5 trillion, driven by a respective 9% and 18% CAGR from 2024.

However, what’s more strategically important is frequency: up to 2–3 transactions per day per user are now occurring within the main shopping apps via food delivery. This is enabling platforms to rethink traffic not as paid advertising, but as recurring utility.

“Food delivery today plays the role search ads did a decade ago—it’s the first tap of the day.”
— Goldman Sachs, July 2025

Platforms are also adopting operational innovations like centralized kitchens (live-monitored kitchens for safety and efficiency) and micro-warehouses, helping to lower costs and improve fulfillment density.

Strategic Shift: From Subsidies to Ecosystem Design

Historically, food delivery was seen as a high-cost, low-margin battleground. But the “everyday app” strategy, as described by Goldman Sachs, reframes it as a customer acquisition engine.

Key shifts include:

• Alibaba consolidating Ele.me and Fliggy into its core Taobao-Tmall Group, leveraging Taobao’s 410M+ DAUs to funnel traffic into daily services.

• JD.com using food delivery to replace expensive digital marketing, with 40% of new users from food delivery converting into JD eCommerce buyers (p.35; Exhibit 14).

• Meituan investing in Instashopping and closing unprofitable Meituan Select to focus on margin-accretive categories.

This convergence has blurred the boundaries between shopping, services, and logistics, enabling integrated app experiences that meet consumer needs across the day.

Competitive Landscape: Three Scenarios for the Next Phase

Goldman Sachs outlines three potential mid-term outcomes based on current order volume trends and strategic investments:

Scenario 1 (Base Case – 5.5:3.5:1 Market Share)

• Meituan maintains dominance (90M daily orders), leveraging scale, algorithmic routing, and supply chain edge.

• Alibaba surges to 60–80M orders.

• JD stabilizes at 20M with limited user density.

EBIT per order (FY25E):
• Meituan: RMB 0.7
• Alibaba: RMB –1.9
• JD: RMB –6.2

Scenario 2 (Duopoly – 4.5:4.5:1)

• Alibaba’s sustained RMB 50B investment closes the gap with Meituan.

• Market tilts to a duopoly; JD remains distant.

Scenario 3 (Fragmented – 5:3:2)

• JD improves merchant coverage and rider operations.

• All three maintain meaningful share.

Platform Implications: Who Gains, Who Hurts?

Meituan (3690.HK):

Despite short-term EBIT pressures (–RMB 25B expected loss), it remains the scale leader, benefiting from centralized kitchens (“Raccoon Kitchen”) and robust Instashopping growth. Profit recovery is expected post-2026E as competition normalizes.

Alibaba (BABA):

Faced with short-term profit declines in core eCommerce due to subsidies, but backed by traffic synergy, and upside from Alibaba Cloud (projected 20% YoY revenue growth with 9% EBIT margin in FY26E).

JD.com (9618.HK):

Still the most under-appreciated turnaround, per Goldman Sachs. Food delivery is expected to drive DAU expansion and re-accelerate profitability from 2026 onward.

Pinduoduo (PDD):

Not actively participating in food delivery, but benefiting from Meituan Select’s exit. Duo Duo Grocery gains share with strong cost efficiency, while Temu revamp may unlock international upside.

Investment Outlook: Pain Now, Payoff Later

Goldman Sachs forecasts peak food delivery losses in Q3 2025 due to seasonal volume (beverage demand) and promotional intensity. However, platforms are reframing these as CAC investments, expecting:

• Alibaba/JD food delivery to reach breakeven or modest profit by 2027E

• GMV margins to rise, as food delivery displaces inefficient ad channels

• Re-rating potential, especially for JD and Alibaba (current P/E: JD at 11x FY25E, Alibaba at 12x FY26E)

“We expect 2H25 to mark a possible inflection point for eCommerce platform share prices.”
— Goldman Sachs, July 2025

The Front Door of Digital China

As the Goldman Sachs report emphasizes, food delivery is no longer a standalone vertical—it is a gateway. Platforms that master hyperlocal fulfillment, frequency-based traffic, and cross-category conversion will be best positioned to become China’s next-generation digital infrastructure.

In the battle to be the everyday app, the winners will be those who serve not just what users want—but when and how they want it.