BofA Securities cautioned that existing support measures for the photovoltaic sector remain inadequate, with catalysts to reverse the current downturn appearing distant. Solar glass manufacturers could continue operating at losses until mid-2026. Citing stretched valuations, the institution slashed Xinyi Solar's (00968) target price by 12% to HK$2.3 while hacking Flat Glass Group's (06865) target by 42% to HK$7, downgrading both stocks to Underperform.
Despite a 30% rally in solar glass equities since late June—fueled by production curtailment signals and anti-overcapacity policies—the critical 2mm solar glass segment deteriorated further. Prices plunged to RMB 10.5-10.8 per square meter over the past fortnight, sinking below breakeven thresholds across the industry.
The analysis projects that even normalized demand by 2026 would fail to counteract structural oversupply pressures now eroding profitability. Market equilibrium appears unattainable without draconian supply-side reforms mirroring the mandatory capacity cuts witnessed during 2016-2017, leaving margins perpetually vulnerable.
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