The machinery industry is experiencing an overall recovery in H1 2025, with semiconductor equipment, construction machinery, lithium battery equipment, wind power components, and export consumer chains all showing improved profitability. Technology-driven sectors such as humanoid robots and domestic demand-driven industries like construction machinery are expected to maintain high levels of activity. Key focus areas include humanoid robots and construction machinery.

A consensus against "involution" is forming in the new energy industry, with photovoltaic equipment, lithium battery equipment, and wind power components expected to shift from price competition to value competition.

**2025 Machinery Industry Shows Overall Recovery**

As of the end of Q2 2025, there are 546 listed machinery companies in A-shares. In H1 2025, they achieved total revenue of RMB 1.0 trillion (up 6.7% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 75.64 billion (up 167.7% YoY). Gross margin reached 22.6% (up 0.1pct YoY), net margin 7.9% (up 0.9pct YoY), ROE 4.2%, and asset-liability ratio 54.0%.

By quarter, Q1 2025 and Q2 2025 achieved revenues of RMB 474.37 billion and RMB 567.68 billion respectively, representing YoY growth of 8.0% and 5.7%. Net profits attributable to shareholders were RMB 33.75 billion and RMB 42.15 billion respectively, with YoY growth of 19.5% and 17.9%. Gross margins were 22.5% and 22.7%, while net margins were 7.8% and 8.1%.

By sub-sector, H1 2025 saw positive momentum in semiconductor equipment, construction machinery, lithium battery equipment, wind power components, and export consumer chains. In Q1 2025, semiconductor equipment, construction machinery, rail transit equipment, and oilfield services equipment showed significant improvement. In Q2 2025, semiconductor equipment, 3C equipment, and wind power components demonstrated notable growth, while the lithium battery equipment industry reached an important turning point.

**Technology and Domestic Demand: Optimistic on Humanoid Robots and Construction Machinery**

**1) Humanoid Robots: Technical Innovation Reaches Critical Mass, Approaching Mass Production** In H1 2025, embodied AI large models and electric drive joint technologies created new requirements for software and hardware. Optimus demonstrated significant technical progress and mass production potential, benefiting domestic component manufacturers that have entered the supply chain or are in key sampling stages. Domestic automotive and internet giants entering the market may reshape the humanoid robot competitive landscape. Multiple domestic manufacturers completed small-batch deliveries, validating technical maturity and supply chain feasibility while preparing for full-scale mass production.

**2) Construction Machinery: Domestic Market Cyclical Recovery, Structural Improvement in Export Regions** With counter-cyclical fiscal policy implementation and industry cyclical upturn, domestic demand is gradually recovering, bringing construction machinery sales and profits back to high levels. Despite some trade friction risks, overall export risks remain manageable. Leading companies are expanding their technological advantages, and overseas expansion is entering harvest phase.

**3) Photovoltaic Equipment: Implementing "Anti-Involution" Consensus, Prices Expected to Return to Normal Range** Since 2024, the photovoltaic industry's anti-involution consensus has gradually formed. Industry capacity clearing is accelerating, with leading companies taking the lead in production cuts to curb vicious low-price competition cycles. A recent photovoltaic symposium by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology injected confidence in anti-involution efforts. Photovoltaic materials and equipment prices are expected to return to normal ranges.

**4) Lithium Battery Equipment: Technology Upgrades and Expansion Drive Market Recovery** In H1 2025, solid-state battery technology continued breaking through. Downstream demand for new technology battery installations drove significant market recovery, with major manufacturers expanding production capacity. The industry inflection point has arrived.

**5) Wind Power Components: "Anti-Involution" Measures Continue to Show Effect, Strong Recovery in Wind Power Industry** Since Q4 2024, the wind power industry has actively implemented "anti-involution" measures. In H1 2025, wind power component prices gradually recovered, industry profitability improved, and the positive momentum is expected to continue throughout 2025.

**Risk Warning:** New technology R&D falling short of expectations, intensified market competition, and other risks.