Citi has released a research report stating that after meeting with Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) analysts, it found that unlike the copper price declines in March and September this year, when downstream buyers actively restocked due to strong orders, during the recent copper price downturn, downstream purchasing willingness has been low due to weak demand.

SMM believes that if the United States does not provide clear guidance on copper tariffs by January 1, 2027, copper prices could fall to $12,000 to $12,500 per tonne.

Citi relayed that SMM expects China's copper demand in 2026 to be roughly flat year-on-year, with growth in export demand offsetting the decline in domestic demand; in 2027, boosted by a recovery in demand from the power sector, copper demand is expected to grow 1.8% to 2% year-on-year.

SMM forecasts that China's copper demand from the power and home appliance sectors will decline year-on-year in 2026, and the home appliance sector's copper demand is still expected to fall 1% year-on-year in 2027.

Global copper demand, meanwhile, is expected to benefit from strong growth in the United States and Southeast Asia, with year-on-year growth of 3% to 4% projected for both 2026 and 2027.

The bank noted that SMM believes China's low copper inventories are mainly driven by tight supply rather than strong demand, and that China's reverse invoicing policy has reduced scrap copper supply.

Based on spot treatment and refining charges (TC/RC), Chinese copper smelters are expected to incur net losses of 5,000 to 10,000 yuan per tonne, with some smelters having already cut production since October 2026.

China's November electrolytic copper output is expected to be 1.08 million tonnes, flat month-on-month.

As for U.S. copper tariffs, the United States imported more than 200,000 tonnes of copper per month from September to October. If tariff guidance remains unclear by January 1 next year, SMM expects no further copper shipments to the U.S. market, putting pressure on copper prices.