A pivotal shift in the US Treasury market is reshaping the landscape for nonferrous metals, creating what many analysts see as a compelling long-term opportunity.

On August 19, the US Treasury Department announced plans to at least double the scale of its long-duration bond buyback program, a move aimed at countering the capital strain caused by heavy debt issuance from AI-related giants. This intervention followed a surge in 30-year Treasury yields, which had climbed to their highest levels since 2007. The policy announcement triggered a sharp decline in long-term yields, a weaker US dollar, and a powerful rebound in spot gold, which jumped 4.35% to surpass $4,500 per ounce.

Beyond the immediate market reaction, this intervention has intensified discussions about AI capital expenditures, US fiscal sustainability, and the trajectory of government debt. According to earlier analysis from HuaBao Fund, the narrative of peaking second-derivative capital spending in the technology sector has yet to fully transmit to US fiscal conditions. However, early signals are now emerging, suggesting that US economic resilience may be weaker than market expectations. This dynamic, in turn, underscores the strategic value of nonferrous metals as a long-term asset class.

The index research and investment department at HuaBao Fund reaffirms its core outlook for the sector, expressing sustained confidence in the medium-to-long-term trend. Over extended cycles, the industry is positioned for simultaneous growth in both volume and pricing, which should solidify corporate earnings and reinforce the sector's "long slope and thick snow" attributes—a reference to its durable compounding potential. The investment thesis rests on three key pillars:

First, from a macroeconomic perspective, the trajectory of US monetary easing appears difficult to reverse, and a weakening dollar credit system is broadly favorable for metal prices. Second, on the industrial front, the sector aligns with the "HALO hard asset" logic, characterized by tight supply-demand dynamics and increasingly prominent national security considerations. Third, from a valuation standpoint, the sector trades at levels that are neither stretched on a relative nor absolute basis, with notable discounts between domestic and international markets, providing a solid margin of safety.

For investors seeking exposure, the Nonferrous Metals ETF HuaBao (159876) and its feeder funds (Class A: 017140, Class C: 017141) track an index that spans copper, aluminum, rare earths, gold, lithium, tungsten, molybdenum, and tin. This comprehensive coverage—encompassing precious metals, industrial metals, energy metals, and strategic minor metals—offers a broad-based approach to capturing the sector's beta, with bullish technical signals like a MACD golden cross further supporting near-term momentum.