SpaceX shares experienced a sharp decline at the start of Monday's trading session, falling over 5% to $137.68. This drop pushed the stock to a new low since its public debut and represents a decline of more than 37% from its historical peak of $225.64.

The sell-off followed renewed bearish commentary from veteran investor George Noble, who also warned of potential selling pressure from company insiders in the coming months. Noble argued that SpaceX's valuation is significantly disconnected from its fundamental business performance.

He noted that at its initial public offering price of $135, the company was trading at a price-to-sales multiple exceeding 90, which later approached 140 times after listing. Noble highlighted the company's disclosed lock-up schedule, which shows insider shares will be released in batches starting after the Q2 earnings report and continuing through the end of the year, with a final batch scheduled for June 2027.

According to Noble's calculations, as employees and early investors gain the ability to sell their shares, these unlock events could lead to a dramatic expansion of the tradable share float. He believes the primary catalyst for the stock price in the coming months will not be company fundamentals, but rather this publicly known schedule of share unlocks.

Noble stated that Starlink is SpaceX's only consistently profitable business segment, but this alone is insufficient to support the company's current market capitalization. He estimates a fair value for SpaceX to be approximately $30 per share, describing the company as "the most severe large-cap valuation bubble I have ever seen."