Nickel markets saw a tussle between bulls and bears above the 129,000 yuan level during the mid-day session on July 15. After opening higher, Shanghai nickel futures trended lower throughout the session, with the price center showing a clear downward shift compared to the previous day. Participants closely monitored every trade, with the direction becoming increasingly uncertain as the session progressed, leading to a noticeable rise in cautious sentiment among market participants.

Market Snapshot

The latest price for the front-month Shanghai nickel contract was 128,870 yuan per tonne, down 560 yuan or 0.43% from yesterday's settlement of 129,430 yuan. The contract opened today at 129,760 yuan, hit a high of 130,150 yuan, and touched a low of 128,680 yuan. The intraday range was 1,470 yuan per tonne, clearly displaying a pattern of opening higher and closing lower.

Open interest was reported at 229,832 lots, showing limited change from yesterday, indicating that capital has not withdrawn on a large scale. Trading volume stood at 151,064 lots, remaining at a moderate level for the recent period. Bulls and bears repeatedly contested the area around 129,000 yuan, with the short-term direction still pending confirmation from the afternoon session.

Domestic and International Market Comparison

The latest price for LME nickel on the electronic platform was $16,720 per tonne, down $30 or 0.18%. It opened today at $16,745, reached a high of $16,855, and a low of $16,705, with the external market's range also narrowing to $150.

In terms of the inter-market price ratio, the linkage between the Shanghai nickel equivalent and the LME price appeared weak. While LME nickel was nearly flat, Shanghai nickel fell by 560 yuan, indicating a divergence in the market rhythms. Fluctuations in the exchange rate and shipping freight costs are putting pressure on the ratio, necessitating a recalculation of import profit and loss windows.

Futures and Spot Basis

The average spot price for Changjiang 1# nickel was reported at 129,650 yuan per tonne, with a low of 128,450 yuan and a high of 130,850 yuan, down 400 yuan from yesterday. The spot average price was 780 yuan per tonne higher than the front-month Shanghai futures contract, with the premium expanding by 60 yuan from the previous 720 yuan.

According to a report from the CCMN platform on July 14, Shanghai nickel inventories decreased by 2,525 tonnes week-on-week to 99,097 tonnes. The destocking trend coexists with the spot premium. However, with absolute inventory levels still near 100,000 tonnes, a contradiction exists between near-term tightness and overall ample supply, making the basis signal worthy of ongoing monitoring.

Nickel prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, caught between supply disruptions and divergent demand. If short positions increase and exert pressure in the afternoon session, futures prices may test the support level at the 128,000 yuan integer mark. Subsequent focus will be on whether LME nickel can hold above the $16,800 level and the sustainability of the expanding spot premium.