In the global innovative drug sector, a breakthrough from China is generating enormous attention: PD(L)1 bispecific antibodies (bsAb). This new generation of tumor immunotherapy is being viewed as the "DeepSeek moment" for China's biopharmaceutical industry - not only due to its disruptive technical principles, but also because it could rewrite the global cancer treatment landscape.

HSBC's latest research report indicates that China's Hang Seng Biotech Index has risen 91% year-to-date, far exceeding the broader market's 26% gain. This remarkable performance stems from significant breakthroughs achieved by Chinese biotech companies in innovative drug development, particularly in the advanced tumor treatment field known as "PD(L)1 bsAb." This new type of cancer immunotherapy employs a dual-targeting strategy, capable of simultaneously binding to two different targets to enhance immune responses.

Over the past decade, Merck's Keytruda has almost defined the gold standard for immuno-oncology treatment. However, Ivonescimab (AK112) developed by Chinese pharmaceutical company Akeso has demonstrated efficacy surpassing Keytruda in global clinical trials. The clinical data released at this year's World Conference on Lung Cancer directly ignited market enthusiasm, being compared to China's innovative drug "DeepSeek moment."

According to HSBC's projections, the global PD(L)1 market will grow from $53 billion in 2024 to $100 billion by 2035, with bsAb capturing approximately 65% of the market share, becoming the new mainstream. In this process, Chinese pharmaceutical companies' first-mover advantage will play a crucial role in market competition.

**Bispecific Antibodies: The Future of Tumor Treatment and a Hundred-Billion-Dollar Opportunity**

The report points out that traditional PD-1/PD-L1 monoclonal antibody drugs (such as Keytruda and Opdivo) work by releasing immune suppression to allow T cells to attack cancer cells, but a considerable proportion of patients still experience ineffectiveness or drug resistance. The advantage of PD(L)1 bsAb lies in its ability to simultaneously target two pathways (such as PD-1/VEGF), not only enhancing immune responses but also breaking through resistance barriers and covering more tumor types.

Under HSBC's baseline scenario, the global PD(L)1 market is expected to grow at a 6% compound annual growth rate from 2024-2035, reaching $100 billion by 2035, with bispecific antibodies accounting for 65% of market share.

This growth will be driven by multiple factors, including the launch of major bispecific antibody drugs in 2027-28, the powerful anti-tumor effects and label expansion capabilities of these drugs, and the patent expiration of monoclonal antibodies.

For the Chinese market, HSBC expects a compound annual growth rate of 8.5% from 2024-2035, with the PD(L)1 market reaching $10 billion by 2035, where bispecific antibodies will capture 70% market share, totaling approximately $7 billion (about 52 billion RMB).

**Chinese Pharmaceutical Companies' "First Move"**

China is the main stage for developing this disruptive therapy: among over 300 global PD(L)1 bsAb pipelines, approximately 90% originate from Chinese companies.

Akeso: AK104 and AK112 have received approval in China and are accelerating entry into the U.S. market through a licensing agreement worth up to $5 billion with Summit Therapeutics.

Innovent Biologics: Its IBI363 has shown positive signals in lung cancer, melanoma, and other cancer types, planning to initiate global Phase III trials in 2025-2026.

Sunshine Guojian, Junshi, and Hengrui are accelerating overseas expansion through clinical breakthroughs and large licensing deals.

Notably, most global pharmaceutical giants do not yet possess PD(L)1 bispecific antibody assets but are entering this market through licensing Chinese assets:

In May, Pfizer paid $1.25 billion to acquire rights to Sunshine Guojian's SSGJ707, with a total transaction value of up to $6.15 billion; In June, BioNTech and BMS reached an $11.1 billion collaborative development agreement for a project also originating from Chinese startup Biotheus.

HSBC expects more deals to follow, with first-mover advantages playing a key role in market competition.

**Who Will Become the Next "Keytruda"?**

Multiple leading companies are actively advancing clinical development. The report indicates:

Akeso's AK112 and AK104 are conducting over 10 global and Chinese Phase III clinical trials; BioNTech (Biotheus)/BMS's PM8002/BNT327 are also in Phase III stages, focusing on lung cancer and triple-negative breast cancer; Sunshine Guojian's SSG707, CAR-T's LM299, and Innovent's IBI363 are expected to initiate global Phase III trials in 2025-26.

HSBC believes these top five companies are positioned to capture over 80% of market share, with a "winner-takes-all" effect potentially replicating the Keytruda and Opdivo landscape.

Despite broad prospects, PD(L)1 bsAb still faces challenges: development and production difficulties due to complex molecular structures, toxicity management, and policy risks from pharmaceutical tariffs. However, from a long-term perspective, these factors are insufficient to change the market's "disruptive" assessment of this technology.