Midland Group's Chief Executive (Residential), Ma Tai-yeung, stated at a press conference on April 20 that transaction volumes in Hong Kong's residential market are expected to continue rising in the first half of 2026. Primary market transactions are projected to reach approximately 11,300 deals, marking a seven-year high for the period, while secondary residential transactions are estimated to hit around 26,600, reaching a five-year peak.

According to a Midland report, sentiment in Hong Kong's primary residential market is strong, with housing inventory declining consistently. By the end of March, the cumulative number of unsold units (including both pre-sale and completed properties) stood at approximately 17,589, the second-lowest level in nearly three years, reflecting a sharp drop of nearly 24% from the peak of around 23,121 units in January 2025. The price gap between new developments and secondary properties has continued to narrow, with a slight premium of about 0.5% reappearing in the first quarter of 2026—the first such occurrence in three and a half years—helping to support secondary market prices.

Ma noted that the first quarter of 2026 saw robust trading activity in Hong Kong's property market, with both primary and secondary residential transactions performing well. Price and rental growth both reached multi-year highs for the period.

Data from the Hong Kong Land Registry show that overall property registrations in the first quarter totaled 23,292, a significant year-on-year increase of approximately 46.4%, reaching a 13-year high for the period. The residential market performed particularly strongly. Based on Midland's data, primary private residential transactions in Hong Kong during the first quarter of 2026 reached 6,291, surging 43.8% year-on-year to a record high for the period since the implementation of the Residential Properties (First-hand Sales) Ordinance in 2013. Secondary residential transactions are estimated to have reached approximately 14,600, also rising about 41% year-on-year to a five-year high.

Ma pointed out that multiple favorable factors have recently emerged in Hong Kong's residential market, driving an accelerated inflow of purchasing power. Buyer confidence is gradually stabilizing, and overall willingness to enter the market has become noticeably more positive. Key contributing factors include the continuous appreciation of the renminbi and repeatedly record-high rental prices.

In addition to the positive impact of sustained capital inflows, Ma highlighted that Hong Kong's local economic fundamentals are steadily improving, leading to a rebound in residents' willingness to purchase property. At the same time, after a decline from previous highs, Hong Kong property prices have accumulated a rebound of approximately 10%, gradually fostering a "fear of missing out" mentality. Many local owners of small to medium-sized units are taking the opportunity to sell and subsequently re-enter the market by purchasing larger units, further amplifying transaction volumes.

It is understood that the "Midland Property Price Index" rose 4.57% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, marking a three-year high for the period and the second-highest level in nearly eight years. The upward trend in Hong Kong property prices continued into April, with the latest index reading at 143.37 points, bringing the cumulative increase for the year to 6.43%—already surpassing the full-year growth of 5.14% recorded in the previous year and reaching a new high in nearly two and a half years.

Regarding mainland buyers in Hong Kong's property market, Midland Realty analyst Cen Songqian indicated that nearly 3,900 property purchases by mainland buyers were recorded in the first quarter of this year, representing a year-on-year increase of over 50%. The transaction value exceeded HKD 40 billion, surging more than 90% compared to the same period last year. Notably, mainland buyers' enthusiasm has shown sustainability rather than being a one-time occurrence—monthly transaction volumes have remained above 1,000 deals for 13 consecutive months, the longest such streak on record, indicating that mainland buyer participation in Hong Kong's property market has become normalized.