**AI Summary** Taking the CSI 300 as an example, over the past year, the CSI 300 Index has risen 40%, with valuation contributing 88% and EPS contributing 12%. Currently, A-shares are experiencing the longest historical period of declining ROE and negative PPI growth, with industrial enterprise profits and A-share net profit growth rates remaining at low levels for an extended period. Past policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market and countering involution have continued to strengthen, with the stock market leading economic fundamentals in its performance.

Looking back to September 24, 2024, A-shares were deeply mired in a confidence crisis, with indices repeatedly fluctuating at low levels and investor sentiment hitting rock bottom. While investors were still worried about whether the index could hold the 2700-point level, a year has passed in a flash, and the Shanghai Composite Index has climbed from 2700 to above 3800 points, with total market capitalization breaking through 100 trillion yuan for the first time, and over 1500 individual stocks achieving price doubles during this period.

Taking the CSI 300 as an example, over the past year, the CSI 300 Index has risen 40%, with valuation contributing 88% and EPS contributing 12%. Currently, A-shares are experiencing the longest historical period of declining ROE and negative PPI growth, with industrial enterprise profits and A-share net profit growth rates remaining at low levels for an extended period. Past policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market and countering involution have continued to strengthen, with the stock market leading economic fundamentals in its performance.

From the data perspective, growth-oriented sectors have performed exceptionally well in this round. Under multiple positive catalysts including innovative drug exports and domestic chip substitution, various growth indices including the Beijing Stock Exchange 50, STAR 50, and ChiNext Index have directly doubled their returns. Hong Kong stocks' Hang Seng Tech and Hang Seng China Enterprises indices also outperformed the broader market.

**"924" One Year Anniversary: Growth Indices Almost All Outperformed the Market** Data Source: Choice As of: September 23, 2025

Despite the overall positive market performance, "structural differentiation" remains the most prominent feature of the past year. Technology and digital economy sectors representing future development directions have "run far ahead": the AI industry chain averaged over 120% gains during the year, semiconductor equipment and materials sectors surged over 90%, while digital economy subsectors like industrial internet and data elements also gained over 80%. In contrast, traditional cyclical sectors such as coal, steel, and real estate chains generally saw modest gains between 10%-20%.

Wind data shows that among the 31 CITIC sectors, 10 sectors have failed to outperform the Shanghai Composite Index since September 24 last year, with these sectors mainly concentrated in value tracks. In any investment market, after the noise settles, prices ultimately return to value. So could these value tracks now have potential for catch-up gains? Today we'll discuss several representative industries and their underlying logic.

**"924" One Year Anniversary: Gain Statistics of 31 CITIC Sectors** Data Source: Wind As of: September 23, 2025

**1. Banking Sector with High Certainty**

Since 2025, the global economy has faced multiple uncertainties, with intensified external shocks and significant domestic market downward pressure. Against this backdrop, the banking sector has become the preferred choice for risk-averse capital due to its high dividends, low valuations, and solid fundamentals.

First, bank stock valuations are generally low, with the current A-share banking sector's average price-to-book ratio (PB) at approximately 0.6x, near historical lows with high safety margins. Second, bank stocks offer high dividend yields, with 28 of the 42 A-share listed banks having dividend yields exceeding 4% (calculated based on June 6 closing prices), while China Citic Bank and Ping An Bank reached 5%.

Finally, as the economic lifeline, banks receive strong policy support with relatively stable fundamentals. Especially under current reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reduction policies, profitability and asset quality are expected to improve further.

From another perspective, if the bull market continues with rising indices, banks as important weights in the Shanghai Composite Index will inevitably rise with the index. Conversely, if indices fluctuate and adjust, banks can still compensate for losses through their high dividend advantages. Therefore, while banks may not show impressive returns in the current market, they are indeed the most stable choice.

In terms of products, Huabao CSI Banking ETF (512800) has a scale exceeding 10 billion with good liquidity, and returns are generally similar. E Fund CSI Banking ETF (516310) maintains a low-fee strategy with the lowest overall fees. For off-exchange products, Tianhong CSI Banking ETF Feeder A/C (001594, 001595) has significant scale advantages and is popular among investors.

**2. Food & Beverage with Prominent Low Valuation Attributes**

2025 seems unfriendly to A-share food and beverage, especially the liquor sector. On September 20, all 20 liquor stocks fell collectively, with Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye declining over 1.5% in a single day, pushing the CSI Liquor Index P/E ratio down to 18.31x, returning to 2018 low levels.

However, extreme pessimism has created opportunities for sector bottom rebounds. The core consumption scenarios for liquor are always tied to business activities and social needs. Although China's economic growth slowed to 4.5% in 2025, policies like infrastructure spending and social security improvements provide support, and scenarios like business banquets and friend gatherings haven't disappeared.

In terms of valuation, as of September 23, 2025, the food and beverage sector (CITIC) has a P/E (TTM) of 21.13, near -1X standard deviation and at the 8.71% percentile over the past decade, making valuations extremely attractive.

Considering the currently active market trading, the food and beverage industry is positioned at "low expectations, low valuations, low crowding." If adopting a time-for-space approach, the food and beverage track may have higher win rates.

**Food & Beverage Industry Valuations Are Extremely Attractive** Data Source: Wind As of: September 23, 2025

In terms of products, China AMC CSI Segmented Food & Beverage Industry Theme ETF (515170), as a representative fund for the food and beverage track, has a scale exceeding 5 billion. Beyond major liquor holdings, it includes dairy products, flavored fermented products, food processing, and non-liquor sectors.

For those wanting to focus on the liquor sector's bottom rebound, consider the off-exchange China Merchants CSI Liquor LOF (161725). This liquor fund was established early with leading scale in its category. Holdings include industry leaders like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, suitable for investors bullish on liquor industry leaders, with current valuations at low levels.

**3. Coal Sector Approaching Peak Season**

As visible, since September 24, the coal sector has had the lowest gains, with overall increases of less than 10%. The main reason is the continuous decline in coal prices over recent months, with thermal coal prices falling 140 yuan from February levels and coking coal futures dropping 400 yuan. The market's biggest concern about the coal sector is falling coal prices leading to declining company profits and ultimately affecting coal stock dividends. This has caused the coal sector's logic to revert from value stocks back to cyclical stocks over the past year.

Some link falling coal prices to current economic downturns. However, facts prove that despite economic weakness from Q2 to July-August, July's total social electricity consumption grew 8.6%, with August expected at 6-8% growth, completely disproving market pessimistic expectations.

Recently, due to overproduction inspections in major producing areas, mine production cuts before National Day, and Daqin Railway maintenance, coal supply has continued tightening. Meanwhile, "Golden September, Silver October" non-power demand recovery combined with declining port inventories has driven coal price rebounds.

**Domestic Thermal Coal Price Index Trend** Data Source: Wind As of: September 23, 2025

Policy-wise, in July, the Energy Administration bypassed the Safety Administration to intervene in coal industry overproduction issues, directly addressing anti-involution. This represents the first supply-side measures since coal prices peaked and declined in 2021-22, demonstrating coal's important position. In August, Shaanxi Development and Reform Commission's coal-related document clearly reflected policy positioning on coal: emphasizing recognition of coal's important political significance across the entire industrial chain, requiring stable supply and prices, with very clear coal price support intentions.

This suggests coal's performance may have been "wrongly killed" in short-term capital chasing high-growth sectors. This year's coal sector bottom performance, extremely low institutional holdings, and uncrowded trading, combined with trading and fundamental resonance, may push coal stocks higher.

In terms of products, Cathay CSI Coal ETF (515220), as the only on-exchange coal ETF, has seen net inflows exceeding 1.2 billion yuan over the past 20 days, joining the "10 billion club" and highlighting capital's active coal allocation intentions.

**Disclaimer**: This information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate at their own risk.