International crude oil prices are on track for a weekly gain of approximately 5%, driven by heightened concerns over supply disruptions stemming from escalating military tensions between the US and Iran and shipping constraints in the Strait of Hormuz.

While geopolitical risk premiums have provided substantial support for oil prices, a minor pullback was observed in early trading on the 10th as market participants assessed the overall conflict as remaining contained.

According to the latest trading data, Brent crude futures in London dipped 0.2% to $76.18 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures in New York edged down 0.1% to $72.02 per barrel.

Primary Market Drivers

Market analysts highlight that the primary catalyst for the recent price surge is investor anxiety over potential disruptions to energy supply chains in the Middle East.

The resurgence of conflict between the US and Iran has led to a notable decline in traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz, significantly increasing shipping risks and insurance costs for commodity carriers navigating the waterway.

Analyst Perspectives on Market Sentiment

The analysis team at Saxo Bank noted that the slight moderation in prices following a mid-week surge suggests traders currently view the situation as a temporary challenge to the ceasefire agreement rather than a complete breakdown.

Analysts from ANZ Research also pointed out that while US strikes on military targets within Iran have intensified, clear statements from the Trump administration about avoiding attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure have helped to stabilize market sentiment, thereby capping the potential for a sustained price surge.

Outlook and Key Factors to Watch

Commenting on the future trajectory, Waleed Said, an analyst at financial institution GivTrade, emphasized that international oil prices are likely to maintain strong support in the near term as long as the geopolitical risk premium associated with Iran persists.

Moving forward, market participants will closely monitor the latest US jobless claims data and comprehensively assess whether domestic US consumer demand possesses sufficient resilience to absorb the elevated fuel costs resulting from the geopolitical conflict.