A research report from Zhongtai Securities Co.,Ltd. indicates that from the coordinated US-Japan intervention in the yen on July 31 to the US Treasury's announcement on August 19 to expand its buyback scale, followed by interest rates hitting new highs just one day later, Bessent's market rescue efforts are losing their effectiveness. The core reason behind this is that the underlying hand of the US Treasury problem has been fully seen through by global investors.

When the Treasury's hand is exposed to the world. On July 31, the US and Japan jointly intervened in the yen, only for it to give back its gains about a week later. Less than three weeks after that, the US stepped in again to stabilize financial markets. On August 19, after the 30-year Treasury yield surged to 5.34%, its highest level since 2007, the Treasury announced an expansion of its buyback program. Following the announcement, the 30-year yield briefly fell, but the next day it climbed back to around 5.24%, while the 10-year yield also returned to 4.70%. Bessent's rescue measure was intended to ease concerns over long-dated debt demand, but with the Treasury problem already severe, the market now perceives a rising credit risk for US debt, and fiscal discipline may be on the verge of collapse. Moreover, as long as the fiscal deficit persists, the Treasury must still issue new debt to meet financing needs after buying back some bonds, which essentially adjusts the composition and maturity of the debt without reducing it. In the short term, as Bessent's rescue options dwindle, Warsh's tone at next week's Jackson Hole central bank symposium may lean hawkish to defend the dollar's credibility. However, in the long run, with the Treasury's hand exposed to global investors, gold is poised to lead non-ferrous metal prices on a sustained upward trajectory. The report advises investors to actively focus on opportunities in the precious metals sector as well as industrial metals.

Gold: prices stabilize and rebound, with equities offering greater upside. The much weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data gave Federal Reserve Chair Warsh room for a dovish stance. After he noted at the European Central Bank forum that US inflation risks have declined, the market quickly pared back expectations for near-term Fed rate hikes. The gold price rebound continues to validate the firm's view that gold prices are likely to stabilize and recover in the near term. Regarding gold investment, the firm consistently emphasizes the investment value of the commodity itself. Meanwhile, on the equity side, following a deep correction in the first half of the year, valuation levels of gold mining companies have fallen significantly from the start of the year to historical lows, offering high odds. Beyond valuation recovery, there is potential to further benefit from price elasticity as gold prices rise. Additionally, the process of rising gold prices itself continues to enhance the win rate of gold equity investments. Investors are advised to actively watch opportunities in gold mining companies.

Copper: US "copper grabbing" resurges, global supply-demand may remain tight in the medium term. The US Commerce Department was originally scheduled to submit its latest copper market assessment report by June 30, offering recommendations on whether to impose import tariffs on refined copper. The market expects the US may decide to impose a 15% tariff on refined copper in phases starting from 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. As a result, the price spread between COMEX and LME copper has continued to widen since May this year, with the former at one point trading about $400 per ton higher, and the peak hitting $500 per ton. On a single day, May 22, more than 50,000 tons of copper were withdrawn from LME warehouses and shipped to the US, marking the largest concentrated withdrawal since 2013. Against the backdrop of diverging inventories between the US and the rest of the world, the firm believes global copper supply and demand are likely to remain tight in the medium term, recommending sustained attention to investment opportunities in copper mining companies.

Aluminum: social inventory drawdown confirms supply-demand dynamics, high dividends bolster defensive appeal. Following the renewed US-Iran conflict, besides heightened uncertainty over Strait navigation, the supply of electrolytic aluminum from the Middle East, which accounts for 9% of global supply, has also become more uncertain. For the global electrolytic aluminum industry, the period of widened overseas supply gaps may be further extended, with the industry's supply-demand landscape likely to stay tight in the medium term. The direct result of reduced overseas aluminum supply is reflected in the further growth of domestic aluminum exports in May, as well as the continuous drawdown of social inventories to 1.007 million tons during July, a traditionally weak demand season. On the other hand, the renewed rise in crude oil prices means the low point for overseas energy prices is gradually being confirmed. As a physical carrier of electricity, the price floor for electrolytic aluminum is also expected to be gradually established. Major electrolytic aluminum companies, which have already completed deleveraging since the beginning of this year, currently offer relatively high dividend yields. For institutional investors that must remain in the market, the firm advises actively positioning in the electrolytic aluminum sector for defensive purposes.

Risk warnings: macroeconomic growth slowdown; tariff impacts on demand and supply chain stability; raw material price fluctuations; changes in US-China relations; distortion of third-party data; delays in data updates.