The resumption of crude oil transportation on October 8 does not mean the inventory buffer has already been repaired.

OEXN noted that on October 5, management of Saudi Aramco said at an industry forum that the world previously held about 10 billion barrels of oil inventory, and more than 1 billion barrels have since been consumed to fill the supply gap.

These figures are management estimates and should be cross-checked against subsequent inventory statistics; they cannot be treated directly as measured conclusions under a unified standard.

There is still a gap between total inventory and usable volumes. OEXN believes that management mentioned commercial inventories are below 6 billion barrels, most of which is difficult to actually draw upon, suggesting that when observing inventories it is necessary to distinguish operating minimums, regional distribution and transport conditions.

Oil that exists on paper may not be able to reach refineries or consumption regions facing shortages in time when demand appears. Restocking requires leaving additional supply after meeting current consumption.

Even if production and transportation recover, refinery purchasing, refined product consumption and inventory rebuilding will still compete for the same batch of crude.

Management estimates that replenishment could take two years; this is a conditional judgment, and the actual pace is also affected by demand changes, refinery maintenance and warehouse turnover factors.

In addition, crude oil and refined product inventories cannot fully substitute for each other, and refinery processing capacity and product specifications will also limit how inventories respond to demand.

For the subsequent market, OEXN analyzed that changes in commercial inventories, available storage capacity and inter-regional delivery speeds should be checked at the same time.

If restocking demand persists, increased exports may not immediately create looser conditions; if end-user consumption cools, the replenishment process may accelerate.

Compared with a single rebound in transportation, what is more explanatory is the joint change in inventories and actual consumption over several consecutive weeks.