Guotai Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. highlights that the AI/HPC boom is driving robust demand expansion for GPU/ASIC and HBM, positioning TCB equipment as one of the most certain segments in the current landscape.

The brokerage notes that high-density interconnection requirements from HBM4e/5 and 3D Logic will accelerate the adoption of D2W hybrid bonding. HBM adoption is expected to begin at key interfaces initially, with the penetration of hybrid bonding in high-end applications expanding steadily as stacking layers increase and interconnection demands intensify. Bonding equipment is poised to become a critical node where the value of advanced packaging equipment extends into the front-end-of-line and mid-end-of-line processes.

Key insights from GTHT:

AI/HPC demand is channeling advanced packaging capex toward mid-to-back-end equipment, with TCB equipment emerging as a high-certainty beneficiary. The expansion of GPU/ASIC and HBM demand, coupled with rising HBM stack counts and growing 2.5D/3D packaging adoption, is exposing the limitations of traditional flip-chip methods in interconnection precision, warpage control, and ultra-fine pitch connectivity. TCB addresses these challenges through high-precision alignment and controllable temperature/pressure profiles, making it the mainstream solution for HBM production. As pitch dimensions continue to shrink, a portion of TCB equipment is transitioning toward Fluxless TCB, which has already secured orders in the logic segment, while memory manufacturers have begun validation efforts for HBM4e-related processes.

Hybrid bonding offers significant advantages in interconnection density, power efficiency, and thermal resistance. Despite substantial upfront investment requirements, the technology delivers clear benefits in interconnect density, bandwidth density, and energy efficiency. Through economies of scale, the per-interconnect cost of hybrid bonding is projected to be notably lower than that of TCB. The brokerage believes high-density interconnection demands from HBM4e/5 and 3D Logic will drive gradual D2W hybrid bonding adoption. Early HBM integration is likely to start with critical interfaces, with hybrid bonding's penetration in high-end bonding expanding as stack counts and interconnection requirements escalate.

The investment appeal of hybrid bonding extends beyond equipment demand growth, encompassing platform-driven value enhancement and spillover effects across the supply chain. D2W hybrid bonding imposes stricter requirements on wafer surface flatness, cleanliness, activation, and alignment precision, pushing bonding equipment to evolve from standalone tools toward integrated platforms combining cleaning, plasma activation, and in-situ metrology. The Kinex platform from the AMAT-Besi collaboration, along with SUSS's D2W/W2W platform, exemplifies this platformization trend. As hybrid bonding equipment enters volume production, adjacent processes including cleaning, CMP, and metrology stand to benefit from upgraded process specifications. Bonding equipment is expected to serve as a pivotal node where advanced packaging equipment value extends toward front-end and mid-end processes.

Near-term, the focus remains on TCB order momentum; medium-to-long-term, hybrid bonding platform capabilities will define competitive advantage. ASMPT combines advanced logic and HBM TCB demand while extending toward Fluxless TCB and hybrid bonding, offering strong near-to-medium-term earnings elasticity. Besi covers FC, TCB, and hybrid bonding across its product portfolio, holding a leading edge in hybrid bonding customer relationships and platform capabilities, positioning it to benefit from rising hybrid bonding penetration over the long term. Hanmi maintains deep customer ties within the HBM segment and remains a direct beneficiary of current HBM capacity expansion. K&S has entered the high-end bonding market through Fluxless TCB, retaining substantial long-term catch-up potential.

Risk factors include weaker-than-expected AI downstream demand, capacity expansion constraints from extended core equipment lead times, delays in HBM's transition to hybrid bonding, and risks from technology substitution or route divergence.