UBS Raises 2026 Lithium Price Forecast for China by 18%, Increases Target Prices for Ganfeng and Tianqi

Stock News
05/08

UBS has released a research report indicating that, based on a higher lithium price forecast, it has raised its 2026 earnings estimates for covered Chinese lithium stocks by 10% to 40% and increased target prices for several stocks. The firm reaffirmed its "Buy" ratings on both the A-shares and H-shares of Ganfeng Lithium Group Co.,Ltd. and the A-shares of Tianqi Lithium Corporation. UBS's global commodities team raised its global lithium price forecast, citing strong demand for battery energy storage systems (BESS), increased electric vehicle demand driven by higher energy prices due to Middle East conflicts, and accelerating demand for electric trucks in China. The bank forecasts that global lithium demand will grow 16% year-on-year in 2026 to 1.97 million metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Electric vehicle battery demand is expected to account for 53% of this total, growing 12% year-on-year, while BESS battery demand is projected to account for 17%, increasing 60% year-on-year. UBS slightly raised its 2024 global lithium supply forecast by 1% and expects global risk-weighted supply to grow approximately 13% year-on-year to 1.91 million metric tons LCE (including recycling), resulting in a supply deficit of 65,000 metric tons LCE. The bank increased its 2026 average Chinese lithium carbonate spot price forecast (including VAT) by 18% to 200,000 yuan per metric ton and expects spot prices could reach 250,000 yuan per metric ton between May and June.

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