【Top News】 The probability of a Fed rate cut has surged to 87%, with markets anticipating a 25-basis-point reduction. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to deliberate on interest rates during its December 9–10 meeting. Financial markets expect the federal funds target rate to drop to 3.75%–4%, down 25bps from current levels. According to CME FedWatch, the likelihood of a December rate cut now stands at 87%. Morgan Stanley has revised its forecast, predicting a 25bps cut post-policy meeting, having earlier withdrawn this projection due to strong September U.S. jobs data and delayed expectations to 2026.
【Market Outlook】 U.S. stocks closed higher overnight, with the Dow up 0.22% at 47,954.99, the Nasdaq gaining 0.31% to 23,578.13, and the S&P 500 rising 0.19% to 6,870.40. Last week, all three major indices posted gains: the S&P 500 (+0.31%), Nasdaq (+0.9%), and Dow (+0.5%). Storage and retail sectors led gains, with SanDisk up 7%, Micron Tech +4%, and Macy’s +2%. Crypto and energy sectors lagged, while Chinese ADRs mostly rose—Baidu surged 5%, GDS Holdings +4%, and XPeng +2%. HSI ADRs dipped 0.24% to 26,021.29. COMEX silver futures jumped 2.28% to $58.8/oz, hitting a record high of $59.9 intraday, up nearly 3% weekly.
【Key Highlights】 - China’s forex reserves rose by $30.29M in November to $3.346T, marking four straight months of growth. Gold reserves increased for the 13th consecutive month, up 30K oz to 74.12M oz. - CSRC Chairman Wu Qing urged securities firms to shift from price competition to value competition, with differentiated policies for large and small institutions. - China’s 2025医保药品目录 added 114 drugs (50 innovative), with an 88% success rate. Five CAR-T therapies entered the commercial insurance list, including Fosun Pharma’s and JW Therapeutics’ products. - Baidu Group-SW (09888) clarified it is evaluating but has not finalized plans to spin off Kunlun Core for an IPO. - PC makers like Lenovo and Dell plan price hikes (up to 20%) due to rising memory costs and AI-driven demand. - Country Garden Services (06098) announced an organizational overhaul to streamline operations without layoffs. - Legend Biotech (01548) presented CARVYKTI data at ASH 2025, showcasing long-term efficacy in multiple myeloma. - Guofu Hydrogen (02582) partnered with Korean firms to develop hydrogen power products for U.S. data centers.
【Stock Spotlight】 Midea Group (00300): Humanoid Robots Revalue the Firm Midea unveiled its six-armed, wheel-legged humanoid robot "MeiLuo U" at the 2025 Greater Bay Area Forum, driving shares to a yearly high. Analysts cite its 4.8% dividend yield and expansion into robotics/AI as key catalysts for valuation upside.