China Hongqiao (01378) rose more than 8% in afternoon trading. As of the latest update, the stock was up 8.01%, trading at HK$38.3, with a turnover of HK$1.444 billion. The price movement follows escalating tensions between the United States and Iran. According to China Securities Research, approximately 7 million tons of aluminum production capacity across six Middle Eastern countries, including nearly 800,000 tons in Iran, face threats to both raw material imports and finished product exports. The institution suggests that any escalation in U.S.-Iran conflict could lead to production cuts in Iran and potentially disrupt stable output in the six Middle Eastern nations. If key maritime transport routes are blocked, alumina may not reach production facilities, and finished aluminum may not be exported, likely causing a global aluminum supply gap. Global aluminum inventories currently stand at 1.62 million tons, leaving limited capacity to absorb supply shocks. The U.S.-Iran conflict is expected to drive aluminum prices upward. GF Securities noted that against a backdrop of improving aluminum demand, strong supply constraints will become more pronounced, and the potential for aluminum price increases should not be overlooked. As of the end of March 2025, China Hongqiao possesses an aluminum production capacity of 6.459 million tons, with stable sales and declining costs. It is projected that rising aluminum prices in 2026 will significantly enhance the company's core profitability. Guotai Junan Securities also anticipates an improvement in the company's future dividend-paying capacity, viewing the stock as an attractive high-dividend investment in the Hong Kong market.