Shanghai nickel futures saw a slight decline during afternoon trading. The main May 2026 contract opened at 133,310 yuan per ton, reaching a session high of 134,300 yuan and a low of 132,880 yuan before closing at 133,010 yuan, down 1,170 yuan or 0.87%. Trading volume for the contract stood at 185,130 lots.
According to Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Network data, the comprehensive 1# nickel price range on April 10 was 133,250-137,550 yuan per ton, with an average of 135,400 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous day. Spot 1# nickel prices in the Yangtze region traded between 133,500-137,300 yuan, averaging 135,400 yuan, also down 50 yuan. Guangdong spot nickel prices ranged from 137,650-138,050 yuan, averaging 137,850 yuan, up 300 yuan from the prior session.
Weekly nickel performance remained under pressure primarily due to macroeconomic headwinds. U.S. February PCE data showed headline inflation at 3% year-on-year, matching expectations, but core goods prices rose 0.1% month-on-month, reversing the previous flat reading as tariff effects pushed up import costs. Although core services inflation slowed to 0.3%, persistent price pressures further delayed market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. A stronger U.S. dollar and weaker U.S. equities dampened risk appetite, directly pressuring dollar-denominated base metals. Meanwhile, escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz triggered safe-haven flows, pulling capital away from risk assets and adding downward pressure on nickel prices.
The supply-demand balance remained stable with thin activity across the industry chain. Globally, nickel supply continues to be ample, supported by ongoing production capacity expansions in Indonesia and stable domestic nickel iron and ore supply. On the demand side, stainless steel mills maintained cautious purchasing sentiment, while demand recovery in the new energy battery sector fell short of expectations, fostering a wait-and-see attitude across the supply chain. In spot markets, traders adjusted offers following price movements, while downstream buyers procured based on immediate needs, resulting in overall muted trading. In futures, the main nickel contract declined with reduced positions and slightly lower open interest, indicating clear fund outflow that amplified the downward momentum.
Looking ahead to the weekend period starting April 10, key variables include geopolitical developments in the Strait of Hormuz, speeches from Federal Reserve officials, and U.S. economic data. Any escalation in regional conflicts could temporarily boost risk premiums, while hawkish signals from the Fed would likely strengthen the dollar and continue to weigh on nickel prices. The main nickel contract is expected to fluctuate within a short-term range of 132,000-135,000 yuan per ton. Traders are advised to adopt range-bound strategies, staying alert to potential surprises in geopolitical and macroeconomic indicators to capture structured trading opportunities.